[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 12N-18N between 19W-25W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the remainder
of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 15N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is from 08N-14N between 40W-49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low is along the
wave axis near near 14.5N. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N-19N between 50W-62W. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
inhibit significant development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.  Regardless of
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles
today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and
Hispaniola on Friday. This system has a low chance of
development through the next 48 hours. Please, read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

A W Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from Cuba
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within
240 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea, near 11N15W, to
05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes
W of a tropical wave near 09N49W to the coast of Guyana near
06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between
15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to
16N94W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis.
The remainder of the Gulf is under surface ridging with mostly
fair weather.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening, then
stall and weaken over the SE Gulf by Sat night. Fresh NE
winds are expected north of the front Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean and another wave is
approaching the E Caribbean. A surface trough is over the
central Caribbean from 18N74W to 10N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-14N between 73W-80W. This convection
is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A tropical wave will move through the Lesser Antilles
later today and tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will
follow in behind the wave to the Leeward Islands tonight, then
move into the NE Caribbean on Thu and reach the Mona Passage
early Fri. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central
Caribbean Thu evening as high pressure builds north of the area.
These winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W 26N75W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic
near 33N28W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, and
extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, where it
will stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected north of the front this
weekend.

$$
Formosa
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