[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the tropical wave from
11N to 16N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere,
within 240 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated shower activity is associated with the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low
pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14.5N.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 16N, and within 150 nm
to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 16N. Strong upper
level winds are expected to inhibit the development of this low
the next few days, and it will likely degenerate into a trough.
The system will move toward the WNW, through the end of the
week. Expect locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
across the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, in the
Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on Thursday, and in Hispaniola
on Friday. This system has a low chance of development through
the next 48 hours, and during the next 5 days. Please, read the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from Cuba
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate is within 120 nm of the tropical wave axis,
and inland across Belize, and northern Honduras. Some speed
convergence is evident on the western side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal, near 11N16W, to
09N19W. The ITCZ is along 07N/08N from 22W to 37W, to 09N40W,
and to 07N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is
within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 38W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front passes through the border of Georgia
and Florida, across the Florida peninsula, to just southeast of
Tampa Bay Florida.  Precipitation: isolated showers are near the
frontal boundary.

The front will continue to dissipate today. Another cold front
will enter the NW Gulf on Friday. The second cold front will
extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico on
Friday evening, and then stall and weaken in the SE Gulf of
Mexico by Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are expected to the
north of the front on Friday and Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 17N60W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to the coast of
Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N to 20N
between 58W and 70W, and from 17N northward between 70W and 80W,
including in the coastal waters of Hispaniola and Cuba.

A tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from Cuba southward, with
widely scattered moderate showers within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A surface trough curves from the Mona Passage toward the
Paraguana Peninsula of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 690 nm on either side of the surface trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in Colombia,
across Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward and
73W westward, in the the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An area of low pressure, along a tropical wave that is to the
east of Barbados, will bring moderate to fresh winds and
building seas to the Lesser Antilles today. The low pressure
center will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.
Wind speeds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea on
Thursday evening, as high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from 32N47W, to 26N53W, to 20N65W.
A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that
is near 35N42W to 30N41W and to 24N43W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate is from 20N northward between 39W and 61W.

A cold front passes through 32N72W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
near the coast of SE Georgia, and across the Florida peninsula
to Tampa Bay. Precipitation: isolated showers are near the
frontal boundary.

An tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 14.5N. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is within 300 nm to the east of the wave axis from 12N
to 16N, and within 150 nm to the west of the wave from 13N to
16N. Strong upper level winds are expected to inhibit the
development of this low the next few days, and it will likely
degenerate into a trough. The system will move toward the WNW,
through the end of the week. Expect locally heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds across the central and northern Lesser
Antilles today, in the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on
Thursday, and in Hispaniola on Friday.

A surface trough is from 34N30W to 22N19W. A 1014 mb low
pressure is near 32N27W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate isolated strong is from 29N to 35N between 18W and 30W.
Isolated moderate within 480 nm northeast of the trough axis.

A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday
evening. The cold front will extend from 31N69W to South Florida
on Saturday evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas are expected to the north of the front this weekend.

$$
Mundell
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