[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 9N between 23W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are evident
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea, is along 62W, from
20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of
the wave from 12N to 18N between 53W and 60W. The wave may produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is entering the Bay of Campeche,
from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated
showers are evident near the wave axis and over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec in southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N19W to 06N25W. the
ITCZ is from 04N28W to 05N40W. Isolated moderate showers are
within 90 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A
broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the coast
of Mexico near 20N.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico Fri evening, then stall
and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun. Fresh NE winds are
expected north of the front Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad east-west upper level trough extends across the western
Caribbean Sea from Cuba and Hispaniola to Central America.
Scattered moderate convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between
73W and 89W. A tropical wave along 62W may produce locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia across
Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate
convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between 73W and 89W.

Widespread showers associated with the tropical wave 62W will
move into the NE Caribbean today and reach the Mona Passage Fri.
Winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean tonight as
high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 32N65W to 26N70W, and across the
central Bahamas to Cuba near 23N79W. Isolated showers are evident
near the frontal boundary.

An upper level trough extends west-southwestward from 32N42W,
across Hispaniola and Cuba, to Central America. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 23N northward between 51W and
60W.

A low pressure center is located near 32N28W. Isolated showers are
associated with the low. Some slow development is possible into
early next week as the moves southwestward and then westward,
passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser
Antilles. This system has a low chance of development through the
next 48 hours, and during the next 5 days. Please read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday
night. The front will extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys on
Saturday evening, then stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the
front this weekend. A broad low pressure area will move westward
to near 60W on Mon.

$$
Mundell
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