[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 08/2100 UTC, is near 24.8N
93.4W or about 300 nm to the S of Cameron in Louisiana, moving
NW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speed is 100 knots with gusts to 120
knots. Numerous strong convection is from 23N to 27N between 91W
and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere N of 20N
between 90W and 97W. The center of Delta will move over the
western Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane
warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night. Additional
strengthening is possible tonight. Some weakening is possible as
Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N with axis near 26W, moving
W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N
between 25W and 35W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N to 20N with axis near 62W, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Isolated showers associated with this wave are E
of the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 07N20W to 08N30W to
07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 04N51W. For convection
information, see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Delta is near 24.8N 93.4W 959 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Delta will
move to 26.3N 93.9W Fri morning, 28.6N 93.5W Fri afternoon, inland
to 31.0N 92.5W Sat morning, move further inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 32.9N 91.1W Sat afternoon, weaken to a
tropical depression near 34.3N 89.2W Sun morning, and move near
35.8N 87.2W Sun afternoon. Delta is forecast to dissipate Mon
afternoon. For further details on Major Hurricane Delta, see the
Special Features above.

Otherwise, weak surface ridging with light to gentle variable
winds will establishes across the basin Sun night through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the Caribbean is a middle to upper level
inverted trough that along abundant moisture at the low to middle
levels is supporting heavy showers and scattered tstms over the
central basin waters just S of Haiti. Scattered showers and tstms
are over the SW basin being supported by diffluent flow aloft between
the upper level ridge supporting major Hurricane Delta in the
Gulf of Mexico and the inverted trough in the central Caribbean.

Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support
fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south-central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas
elsewhere on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin
through early next week as the high pressure shifts east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N68W to 29N70W to 29N76W to the
NE coast of Florida near 30N81W. There is no convection associated
with this boundary due to dry air subsidence from aloft. Surface
high pressure dominates the remainder Atlc subtropical waters.

The front will stall along roughly 27N on Fri. The western
portion of the front will lift north as a warm front through early
Sat. A weak pressure pattern will follow and gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist Sun and Mon.

$$
Ramos
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