[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 08/1500 UTC, is near 24.0N
92.7W. This position also is about 350 nm/645 km to the S of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110
knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 190 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle, and within 170 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center, and from 270 nm to 440 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. The hazards that will be affecting the
land are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf.
Hurricane conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are
expected to begin along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf
of Mexico, on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/ Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 16N
southward, moving W 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 16N.
Scattered moderate is within 75 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 13N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 100 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 20N to 23N, and within 30 nm to the west of the wave
from 20N to 21N, and from 10N to 14N between 59W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N19W, 09N30W, 07N32W, and 07N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N36W, to 05N45W, and to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated strong is from 13N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 08/1800 UTC, is near 24.0N
92.7W. This position also is about 350 nm/645 km to the S of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110
knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 190 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle, and within 170 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center, and from 270 nm to 440 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant.

Hurricane Delta near 24.0N 92.7W 968 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Delta will
move to 25.4N 93.6W this evening, 27.5N 93.8W Fri morning, 29.8N
93.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm
near 32.4N 91.7W Sat morning, then becoming a tropical
depression near 34.0N 90.0W Sat evening, and become a remnant
low and move to 35.6N 87.9W Sun morning. Delta will dissipate
early on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is on
top of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 67W westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from
25N southward from 67W westward. Precipitation: scattered strong
is from 200 nm to 400 nm to the south of the cyclonic
circulation center. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong is elsewhere from 67W westward.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 23N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 20N to 23N,
and within 30 nm to the west of the wave from 20N to 21N, and
from 10N to 14N between 59W and 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the waters
from 12N southward from 77W westward.

Building high pressure in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean will
support fresh trade winds and moderate seas in the south central
Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight
seas elsewhere on Friday. The winds and the seas will diminish
across the basin, through early next week, as the high pressure
shifts to the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 64W/65W, from 23N to 30N.
Precipitation: little to none.

A second surface trough is along 26N34W 17N36W. Precipitation:
little to none.

The GFS model for 700 mb, for 500 mb, and for 250 mb shows broad
anticyclonic wind flow from 10N to 16N between 50W and 57W. This
is an area of widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
precipitation.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 26N northward from 30W westward. Two large-scale frontal
boundaries are in the Atlantic Ocean, from 30N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow.

High pressure, centered to the east of the Bahamas, will
dissipate today, in advance of a cold front that is approaching
the area from the north. The front will stall along roughly 27N
on Friday. The western part, of the front will move northward as
a warm front, through early Saturday. A weak pressure pattern
will follow, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist on Sunday and Monday.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net