[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta is near 26.2N 93.6W at 09/0600 UTC,
or about 215 nm S of Cameron Louisiana, moving NNW at 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and
within 120 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in the NE
semicircle and within 210 nm SW semicircle. The center of Delta
will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then
move inland along the SW Louisiana coast late this afternoon or
this evening. Some slight additional strengthening is possible
during the next few hours. Weakening is expected to begin later
today as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast. NOAA buoy
42002 near 26.1N 93.6W recently measured a significant wave
height of 35 ft and a pressure of 953 mb inside the eye. Prior to
the eye passage, the buoy measured winds of 72 kt with gusts of
86 kt. Hurricane force winds and a dangerous storm surge are
expected along portions of the Gulf Coast later today. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 28W from
02N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 270 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N-13N.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development this weekend or early next week while the system is
over the tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. The
chance of development within the next 5 days is low.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis extends along 62W from
05N-23N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N-17N
between 53W and the wave axis. Scattered showers are also seen
from 20N-23N between 59W-64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of west Africa near
16N17W and extends to 10N23W to 07N35W. The ITCZ is from 07N35W
to 05N45W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection described above in
the tropical waves section, no significant convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The circulation of Hurricane Delta covers the Gulf of Mexico
west of 87W and north of 22N. Delta will move to near 27.4N
93.7W this morning, then begin to weaken as it moves inland to
near 29.8N 93.0W this evening. Delta will weaken to a tropical
storm near 32N92W Sat morning, then to a tropical depression well
inland near 33.5N 90W Sat evening. In its wake, weak high
pressure will build across the area into early next week. For
further details on Major Hurricane Delta, see the Special
Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered NW of Jamaica and E of the Cayman
Islands. A recent ASCAT pass shows a N-S oriented surface trough
along 72W. These features, along with abundant moisture at low to
middle levels is supporting scattered moderate to strong
convection from 10N-21N between 71W-76W, and from 17N-20N between
81W-86W. This includes Haiti and the Windward Passage. A recent
ASCAT pass shows some fresh winds to the east of the surface
trough between 69W-72W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave will enhance showers today over
the Lesser Antilles before moving into the central Caribbean
over the weekend. Building high pressure over the northwest
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over
the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds
and slight seas elsewhere today. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin through early next week as the high pressure
shifts east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 32N64W to 28N71W to 29N78W to St.
Augustine Florida. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
front, north of 30.5N and east of 64W. Winds are gentle on both
sides of the front west of 65W, although fresh E winds are noted
in the Florida Straits and Old Bahama Channel. A 1017 mb high is
near 26N66W. A surface trough extending from 30N50W to 25N57W is
inducing some scattered showers near it. Surface high pressure
dominates the remainder Atlantic from 20N-32N, with mainly gentle
to moderate winds covering most of the basin west of 30W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will stall today along
27N. The western portion of the front will lift back north as a
warm front through early Sat. Behind the front, a tightening
gradient will bring fresh northeast to east winds over most of
the northern waters today through late Sat. A weak pressure
pattern will allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas from Sun into early next week.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net