[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gamma is centered is near 22.1N 88.1W at
05/2100 UTC or about 100 nm ENE of Progreso Mexico, moving SW at
4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 210 nm of the depression center.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move
inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula Tuesday
and remain over the northern portion of the peninsula and
dissipate Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is
expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and
dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Delta is centered near 16.5N 79.6W at 06/0000 UTC or
130 nm SSW of Negril Jamaica moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60
kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 12N-
18N between 74W-83W. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early
Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Additional
rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the
Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of
this wave from 12N-22N north of the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 12N51W.  The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 12N53W and goes to the coast
of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of the ITCZ from 09N-19N and east of the 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.D. Gamma, and Hurricane Delta.

Outside of the area of showers and thunderstorms over the east
central Gulf, a fairly dry pattern is in place with no
significant convection noted W of Gamma, 90W. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are noted over most of the Gulf outside of the main
area of Gamma, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are
noted over the far nw Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

The development and track of both T.D. Gamma and Hurricane Delta
will be the main influences on the forecast for the Gulf of
Mexico through late week. Gamma will drift SW across the western
Yucatan Peninsula and weaken to a remnant low tonight, then
dissipate by Wed. Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Hurricane Delta
near 16.2N 79.4W 983 mb will move through the Yucatan Channel
Tue night, strengthen to a major hurricane and move to near
22.6N 88.7W Wed afternoon, move to near 24.8N 91.5W Thu
afternoon and near 28.5N 91.5W Fri afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from
10N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Other than the
area of showers and thunderstorms noted above associated with
Hurricane  Delta, thunderstorms are active off Cabo Gracias a
Dios in eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the eastern Caribbean from 12N-16N between 62W-68W. Fresh to
strong west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of Roatan
and east of Belize. Strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are
active between Jamaica and the southern peninsula of Haiti.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted over
the Caribbean. Beyond the impacts of T.S. Delta mentioned above,
the pattern will gradually shift to moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across the basin, with the strongest winds over the south-
central Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 30N73W to 28N80W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough
is over the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 22N55W, depicted by a
sharp wind shift. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 39N29W.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight,
ahead of another weak front expected to move over the Atlantic
waters east of Georgia. The second front will weaken as it drifts
south to the waters off NE Florida, then dissipate by mid-week.
Strong SE winds are possible off NE Florida by late Fri.

$$
MTorres/Ramos
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