[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is centered near 16.8N 80.3W at 06/0300 UTC, or
about 150 nm SW of Negril, Jamaica and 155 nm SSE of Grand
Cayman, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to
85 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted 120 nm in the NW
quadrant and 95 nm in the NE quadrant. An area of numerous
strong convection is south of the center from 12N-15N between
80W-83W. Seas are up to 17 ft with 12 ft seas extending 30 nm in
the W semicircle, 90 nm in the NE quadrant, and 45 nm in the SE
quadrant. A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early
Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday night. Delta is
forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico early
Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico late
Wednesday and Thursday. Additional rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be
a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy
rainfall from Delta will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during
the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gamma is now a post-tropical cyclone and is centered near 21.6N
88.4W at 06/0300 UTC. Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the northern
Yucatan. Seas are up to 13 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90
nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SW quadrant, and 270 nm in
the NW quadrant. There are no more advisories being issued on
this system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of
this wave from 09N-23N between 43W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monson trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 06N40W to 07N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough
and ITCZ from 04N-12N between 18W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

A trough extends north of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma from
22N89W to 28N88W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
northern portion of the trough from 24N-29N between 86W-90W.
Moderate ENE are to the east of the trough, with fresh to strong
NNE winds on the west side of the trough. Ridging continues
across the western Gulf anchored by a 1019 mb high near 21N97W.
Fresh winds are seen from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate easterly winds are in the SE Gulf with light
to gentle winds in the western Gulf. Outside the influence of
Gamma, seas average 3-6 ft in the NW Gulf and 6-9 ft elsewhere.

Hurricane Delta is expected to become a major hurricane as it
approaches the Yucatan Channel by late Tue, then move across the
NE tip of Yucatan Wed morning before entering the south-central
Gulf. Delta will reach 23.0N 89.5W Wed evening, 24.0N 90.8W Thu
morning, 25.2N 91.7W Thu evening, then to near the Louisiana
coast by late Fri. Meanwhile, Gamma will move inland to 21.1N
88.9W Tue morning, inland to 20.2N 89.6W Tue evening, and
dissipate Wed morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across
the eastern Caribbean from 11N-16B between 59W-71W. Scattered
moderate convection is also occurring in the SW Caribbean,
influenced by the monsoon trough which is along the Costa Rica
and NW Panama coasts, from 09N-13N between 73W-83W.  Gentle to
moderate winds are in the eastern Caribbean with light to gentle
winds in the SW basin. Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted
off the coasts of Belize and the southern Yucatan. Outside the
influence of Delta, seas average 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft
north of Honduras.

Hurricane Delta will move to 18.1N 82.0W Tue morning, 19.8N
84.6W Tue evening as a major hurricane, then move inland over
the northeast tip of Yucatan near 21.5N 87.1W Wed morning. Delta
will continue to intensify as it moves across the central Gulf
of Mexico through late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N71W to north
of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N81W. Showers are noted along
the front. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are north of the front N
of the front and E of 76W. A surface trough is analyzed in the
central Atlantic from 32N57W to 22N57W. No significant
convection is associated with this system. Showers with isolated
thunderstorms are moving off the coast of Western Sahara to the
Canary Islands. Fresh winds are north of Hispaniola, moderate to
fresh winds in the Straits of Florida, and moderate to fresh
winds to the east of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds
are noted elsewhere as ridging dominates most of the basin
anchored by a 1029 mb high over the Azores.

The front extending  Florida will persist off NE Florida through
mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas
and merge with this front Thu, then lift northward as a warm
front through Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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