[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051754
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered is near 22.3N 87.6W at 05/1500
UTC or 139 nm ENE of Progreso Mexico, moving SW at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Gamma has an exposed
center currently, with most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity sheared well to the northeast of the center due to
strong S to SE winds aloft. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N between
82W-87W. The long fetch of the persistent strong NE winds to the
north of the center is supporting seas to as high as 17 ft in
the northwest quadrant of Gamma. Gamma is expected to turn toward
the southwest or west-southwest by tonight, and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the
northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and
remain inland through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast,
and Gamma is expected to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant
low on Wednesday.  Dissipation of the low should occur on Friday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Storm Delta is centered near 16.4N 78.6W at
05/1500 UTC or 117 nm S of Negril Jamaica moving W at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 10N-19N between 73W-85W. Delta is
expected to turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later
today.  A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected
to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the
Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba Tuesday
afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Through midweek,
Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
floods
and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of
this wave from 13N-25N between 44W-50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 09N22W to 06N34W. The ITCZ continues from 06N34W to 12N50W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 12N54W and goes to
the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.S. Gamma, and T.S. Delta.

Outside of the area of showers and thunderstorms over the east
central Gulf, a fairly dry pattern is in place with no
significant convection noted W of Gamma. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds are noted over most of the Gulf outside of the main
area of Gamma, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are
noted over the far northwest Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

The development and track of both T.S. Gamma and T.S. Delta
will be the main influences on the forecast for the Gulf of
Mexico through late week, as described above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Delta.

The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from
11N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N80W. Other than the
area of showers and thunderstorms noted above associated with
T.S. Delta, thunderstorms are active off Cabo Gracias a Dios in
eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Windward Islands from 12N-14N between 59W-62W. Fresh to strong
west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of Roatan and
east of Belize. Strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are active
between Jamaica and the southern peninsula of Haiti. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted over the
Caribbean. Beyond the impacts of T.S. Delta mentioned above,
the pattern will gradually shift to moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across the basin, with the strongest winds over the
south-central Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to
29N79W to Palm Bay Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the
central Atlantic from 31N55W to 23N55W, depicted by a sharp
wind shift. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
38N33W.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the W Atlantic will
dissipate today. A weak cold front is expected to move over the
Atlantic waters east of NE Florida tonight. A second front will
drift south through Tue then stall from 31N73W to near W Palm
Beach Florida by mid week. Strong SE winds are possible off NE
Florida by late Fri.

$$
Formosa
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