[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large non-tropical low pressure system centered just north of
the Madeira Islands is continuing to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander over
the next day or so and could acquire subtropical characteristics
during that time. Afterwards, environmental conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
Regardless of subtropical formation, this system will continue
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
Islands through Tuesday. Gale force winds are occurring with
this low north of 33N and east of 22W. This low has a medium
chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com
/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
29N83W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the front. Gale force winds have developed over the southwest
Gulf of Mexico mainly south of 20N and west of 95W. These
conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues
moving southeast across the basin.  Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-12 and east of 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf due to a
frontal passage. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong north
to northwest winds prevail, while gentle to moderate southwest
winds are noted ahead of the front.

The front will continue moving southeast across the basin. Winds
and seas will subside through Tue. High pressure in the wake of
the front will shift E Tue night through Wed night allowing for
fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds basin-wide.
Looking ahead, another cold front late in the week may bring
gale conditions to the SW Gulf once again by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers prevail over the Yucatan Channel ahead of the
cold front that extends over the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is located over the SW Caribbean
S of 13N between 76W-83W due to the Monsoon Trough currently
extending along 10N. Benign weather prevails across the
remainder of the basin.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most
of the basin into late week. The cold front will reach the NW
Caribbean tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be
followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas
Tue and Tue night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that
has the potential for subtropical development this week. A
surface trough extends from this low SE between the Canary
Islands and the coast of Africa, from near 31N13N to 21N20W. No
convection is currently occurring along this trough.

Over the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from
near 31N49W to 22N53W to 21N64W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 31N46W to 25N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm on either sides of the trough, while scattered
showers are noted along the front.

Farther west, a surface trough extends from 24N68W to 22N68W
with scattered showers. Scattered showers have entered the west
Atlantic, ahead of a cold front that is currently extending
along the Georgia/Florida coastlines.

Strong to near gale force S winds will develop N of 27N and W of
72W through tonight, ahead of the cold front that will exit the
SE U.S. coast this evening. This front will move east while
slowly weakening, then stall from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba mid-week. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N
and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas
shifting to NE of the Bahamas.

$$

ERA
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