[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large non-tropical low pressure system centered north of the
Madeira Islands is producing gale-force winds in addition to a broad
region of showers and thunderstorms. This low has changed little in
organization over the last 24 hours, but it could still acquire
subtropical characteristics as it drifts slowly southwestward over
the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless
of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce
strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through
Tuesday. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical
cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
31N77W to 25N81W to 16N91W. Gale force winds are occurring over
Veracruz adjacent waters and in the Bay of Campeche. These
conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues
moving southeast and out of the basin. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
10N15W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to 06N41W to the
coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-13N between 17W and 35W, and from 02N to 08N between 36W
and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf.

A cold front over the southeast Gulf will exit the basin this
evening. Gale force winds behind the front off Veracruz will
diminish tonight, with winds and seas subsiding across the rest
of the Gulf through Tue. Expect strong SE winds ahead of a second
front entering the northwest Gulf late Wed. The front will reach
from southeast Louisiana to the southwest Gulf by late Thu, with
gales again possible off Veracruz. The front will reach from the
northeast Gulf to the southwest Gulf by late Fri then move
southeast of the area by Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pre-frontal surface trough extending from 22N81W to 17N86W
continue to suport scattered showers over western Cuba and the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Upper level divergent
flow along with the monsoon trough that pass across Costa Rica
and Panama into northern Colombia continue to support numerous
heavy showers and tstms over the SW basin. These showers are
accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas
to 9 ft. Middle level dry air and a middle level anticyclone over
the eastern half of the basin support fair weather conditions for
that region of the Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
into late week. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight
then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to
locally strong NW winds and building seas through mid week.
Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by
late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that
has the potential for subtropical development this week. A
surface trough is ahead of this low extending from 30N14N to
26N20W. No convection is currently occurring along this trough.

Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N46W
to 23N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 21N
between 42W and 53W. Over the far NW waters, a cold front
extends from 31N77W to 27N80W, which is generating scattered
showers and tstms to the waters N of the Bahamas. Strong to near
gale force SW to W winds are ahead and behind of the front N of
28N W of 69W with seas to 12 ft. These conditions will accompany
the front as it moves across the region through Tue. The front
will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid week, and stall
and dissipate from 25N65W to western Cuba through late week.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida by late Sat.

$$
Ramos
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