[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large non-tropical low pressure centered near the Madeira
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander through Tue and
could acquire subtropical characteristics during that time.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development,
this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in
the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Gale force winds are
occurring with this low. This low has a medium chance of becoming
a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Also, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near
Apalachicola, Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Some strong
thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of this front within
about 200 nm of the Florida Big Bend coast, otherwise, scattered
moderate showers extend along and just behind the front into the
central Gulf of Mexico. This cold front and associated convection
will continue moving SE through the Gulf today and exit SE of the
basin this evening. Gales will develop shortly in the western Bay
of Campeche and within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico.
These gales will persist into tonight. Elsewhere, strong N winds
and building seas can be expected in the wake of the cold front.
Conditions will improve Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near
12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 02N-11N between 15W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on the
strong cold front crossing the basin, producing gales in the SW
Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to locally strong S winds are
occurring.

This front will cross the basin today and move SE of the Gulf
this evening. Strong N winds and building seas exist behind this
front, and gales will develop this morning in the extreme SW Gulf
and continue into Mon night. Winds and seas will decrease Tue.
High pressure in the wake of the front will shift E Tue night
through Wed night allowing for fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds basin-wide. Another cold front late in the week
may bring gale conditions to the SW Gulf Fri.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel are
associated with a surface trough that is located in the western
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also
located over the SW Carribbean S of 13N and E of 76W, in
association with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon
trough and low pressure centered along the northern coast of
Colombia. This low is aiding in locally strong trade winds off the
NE coast of Colombia this morning.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
into late week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near the coast
of Colombia this morning. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean
tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh
to locally strong NW winds and building seas Tue and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that
has the potential for subtropical development early this week. A
surface trough extends from this low SE between the Canary Islands
and the coast of Africa, from near 31N15N to 23N19W. No convection
is currently occurring along this trough.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from near 31N50W
to 23N60W to 27N73W. The front then stalls and evolves into a warm
front over the western Atlantic from 27N73W to 31N78W. Convection
along this frontal system has diminished, but activity is ongoing
in within 90 nm of a pre-frontal trough that is located from
31N46W to 20N54W. Strong SSE winds are also occurring ahead of
this trough N of 25N.

Farther W, S of the warm front and ahead of an inland cold front
advancing toward the coast of the SE U.S., strong S winds have
developed mainly N of 28N. Strong thunderstorms will emerge off
the coasts of N FL, GA, and SC later this morning ahead of the
cold front.

Strong to near gale force S winds will develop N of
27N and W of 72W today and tonight, ahead of a cold front the will
exit the SE U.S. coast this evening. This front will move east
while slowly weakening, then stall from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas
and eastern Cuba mid-week. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and
W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas
shifting to NE of the Bahamas.

$$
KONARIK
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