[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and
large non-tropical low pressure system over the far eastern
Atlantic has become a little better organized since yesterday.
This low could acquire subtropical characteristics during the
next couple of days while it meanders just to the north of the
Canary Islands. By the middle of the week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development. Regardless of development, this system should cause
strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands
through Monday or Tuesday. The most recent scatterometer data
provided observations of gale force winds in association with
this feature, that is stacked with a large mid-upper level low.
This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone
through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also, refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
a 1006 mb low pressure located over central Alabama to
near Veracruz, Mexico. A wide band of mainly overcast low clouds
is associated with the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are over the Florida Panhandle. Mosaic Doppler
radar from the SE of U.S. shows this convective activity
affecting mainly the Gulf waters N of 28N between 82W-91W. The
low will continue to move northeastward tonight. The front will
exit the Gulf by Mon night. Strong north winds and building seas
will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in the SW Gulf
near the Veracruz region. Seas generated from the gale-force
winds will peak 12-16 ft on Mon afternoon. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force by late Mon night. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near
12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 02N-11N between 15W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters that is
forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see Special Features section for details. Currently,
fresh to strong winds area noted in the wake of the front,
and ahead of the front, in the southerly flow, N of 27N.

The front will cross the basin Mon and be SE of the Gulf Mon
night. Strong N winds and building seas exist behind this front,
and gales will develop Mon morning in the extreme SW Gulf and
continue into Mon night. Winds and seas will decrease Tue. High
pressure in the wake of the front will shift E Tue night through
Wed night allowing for fresh to locally strong east to southeast
winds basin-wide. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Wed, reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central
Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from Apalachee Bay to near
25N87W and to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri night. Fresh to
strong north winds and building seas will follow in behind this
front, with gale force N winds likely offshore Veracruz, Mexico
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to 17N90W.
Scattered showers extend E to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
S of 13N between 76W-83W mostly due to the eastern extension of
the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over the E Caribbean E of 69W.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
through the mid-week, except for strong northeast winds pulsing
near the coast of Colombia through Mon.

A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Mon night, extend from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become
stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu. The front will be
followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building
seas Tue and Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N52W and extends
SW to 26N60W to 26N67W. A stationary front continues to 28N73W.
A warm front continues to beyond 31N76W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the fronts. Scattered moderate convection is E
of the cold front from 21N-31N between 38W-49W. Further E, a
surface trough is over the Canary islands from 31N15W to 23N18W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.

Strong to near gale-force S winds are developing in the
wake of the western Atlantic warm front N of 27N and W of 72W,
ahead of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.
This front will move across the waters Tue, then reside from
Bermuda to central Cuba Wed morning. This front will weaken and
stall Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building
seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and W of
71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to
northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the
front will weaken as it shifts eastward through Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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