[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will drop
southward across the Gulf of Mexico and will approach the
southwest Gulf by Monday morning. As the front moves into this
area, NW to N gale-force winds will develop around 30/1200 UTC
from 19N to 21N between 95W-96W, within 60 nm of Veracruz.  Seas
will build to 9 to 11 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Nevada near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
04N32W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
between 13W to 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of
Mexico gale warning.

At 28/1500 UTC, a cold front stretched from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to Corpus Christi, TX near 27N97W. Scattered moderate
convection is confined to the NW Gulf, N of 27N between 88W to
97W. Surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1018 mb high near 26N83W. Light to gentle SSE winds
are noted across most of the basin with moderate to fresh NNE
winds behind the front. Seas range 2-4 ft.

The cold front will move a little southward through this
afternoon and become stationary tonight. The front will begin to
lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Sun morning.
At the same time, low pressure will track northeastward along
the upper Texas coast dragging a strong cold front into the NW
Gulf. The front will quickly reach from near Mobile Bay to the
central Gulf and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun
evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon night. The front
will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas. Gale force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf Mon into
Mon night. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in
the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed
night allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast flow to set
up across the area. Another cold front is expected to move into
the NW Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging over the northwest Caribbean is keeping
conditions dry across most of the region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the southern Caribbean, S of 14N
between 60W to 82W. Moderate to fresh trade winds in the central
Caribbean with gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 3-6 ft with
upwards of 9 ft north of Colombia.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
through early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to
strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the
early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern
Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast
part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed
night. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong
northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the central Atlantic, a 1009 mb low is centered near 27N57W,
or about 565 nm SE of Bermuda. A trough extends southwest of it
to near 21N63W. Scattered moderate convection continues to be
east of this system, N of 25N between 45W to 55W. Moderate to
fresh SSE winds are noted east of the low. Seas range from 10-14
ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development during the next day or so as the low
moves northeastward before it is absorbed by an approaching
frontal system over the north-central Atlantic. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours
and the next 5 days.

In the western Atlantic, a pre-frontal trough extends south of a
cold front approaching the forecast waters from 30N72W to
30N80W. No significant convection is associated with this
trough. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 28N76W.  In the
central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 11N56W to 18N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the trough
from 10N to 17N between 48W to 56W. A cold front is dropping
southward across the eastern Atlantic, entering the forecast
waters near 31N20W to 33N35W with showers along the boundary.
Fresh to strong SE winds are noted in the central Atlantic N of
24N between 41W to 50W. Seas range from 4-7 ft.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will continue to weaken through Sun as a weak cold front
near 31N moves south to near 29N. The front will lift back north
as a warm front through early Sun evening. Southerly winds will
increase over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong
cold front approaches. The cold front will reach the
southeastern U.S. coast early Mon, move over the northwest
forecast waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N77W to South
Florida Mon night, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it
reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to
strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind
the front,mainly N of 26N and W of 71W as strong southwest will
precede it.Winds diminish Tue evening, with the highest seas
shifting to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

$$
AReinhart
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