[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
06N28W to 07N40W and to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 35W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front stretches from near Mobile Bay to Corpus
Christi Texas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along
and north of this boundary. Otherwise, high pressure remains
dominant through the Gulf and no significant convection is
ongoing. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of the front
with gentle to moderate mainly SE winds elsewhere.

A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Sun
morning, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near
25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night and to southeast
of the Gulf by Mon night. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas. Gales are likely in the
extreme SW Gulf late Mon. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue.
High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue
night through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to
southeast flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of
Venezuela and N of Panama along the extension of the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds
are ongoing.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of
the basin through early next week, except for northeast winds
pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and
into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the
northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the
northeast part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary
through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to locally
strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are
expected to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 mb low pressure center near 27N58W is moving slowly north.
Convection with this low has been displaced well N and E of the
center, from 23N to 32N between 42W and 57W, with fresh to strong
SE winds to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for tropical development
this weekend as the low begins to move more quickly to the
northeast ahead of and approaching cold front. By early next week,
the low will be absorbed by the front. This system has a low
chance of tropical formation this weekend.

To the south of this low, a surface trough extends along 57N from
Guyana to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is within about 150
E of the trough axis from 11N to 16N.

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 28N76W is keeping dry
conditions with light to gentle winds in place over the SW
Atlantic, while a weakening cold front between Bermuda and the
United States is sagging southward toward 30N.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves
across northern part of the area. Southerly winds will increase
over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong cold front
approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from
near 31N77W to South Florida Mon night, from near 31N70W to the
southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and
weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening.
Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in
behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue
evening, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front.

$$
KONARIK
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