[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
of Mexico early Sun. The front will shift across the Gulf of
Mexico, reaching the southwest Gulf Monday morning. Gale- force
winds will develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico. The gale force winds will prevail through Mon
before diminishing below gale force Tue. Seas generated from the
gale- force winds will peak near 15 ft on Mon. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N17W to 04N34W to the coast of Brazil near
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N
between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information the gale warning
over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
near 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of the
front, and within 30 nm south of the front. Surface ridging
continues across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high
near 26N78W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail
north of the front. Light winds prevail over the NE Gulf, and
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf,
and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will begin to lift back north as a warm front
late tonight into Sun morning. At the same time, low pressure
will track northeastward along the upper Texas coast dragging a
strong cold front into the NW Gulf. The front will quickly reach
from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and to the eastern Bay
of Campeche by early Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by
Mon night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas. Gale force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf
Mon into Mon night. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High
pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night
through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to
southeast flow to set up across the area. A frontal system is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night and reach from near
Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by
late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow in behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and
2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the basin
through early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to
strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the
early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern
Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeastern
Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed night
and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally
strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are
expected to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N69W to N
Florida. Scattered showers prevail north of the trough. A 1017 mb
high pressure is centered near 26N78W. W of 65W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 32N56W to
21N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm
east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 25N,
east of the trough to near 45W. Seas over this area are in the
8-12 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft,
prevail west of the trough to near 65W.

Farther east, A cold front is dropping southward across the
eastern Atlantic, entering the discussion waters near 32N12W to
29N24W to 32N35W with showers along the boundary. Fresh to
strong winds are noted N of the front. Over the tradewind zone
south of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail. Seas over
this area are in the 6-9 ft range.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will continue to weaken through Sun as a weak cold front
near 30N moves south to near 29N. The front will lift back north
as a warm front through early Sun evening. Southerly winds will
increase over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong
cold front approaches. The cold front will reach the southeastern
U.S. coast early Mon, move over the northwest forecast waters
Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon night,
from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba
by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W
to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N
and W of 71W as strong southwest will precede it. Winds diminish
Tue evening, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward
through Thu night.

$$
AL
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