[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 152348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.3N 79.8W at 15/0000 UTC or
100 nm E of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Iota is now a Category
two hurricane in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid
strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is
forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when
it approaches Central America. On the forecast track, the core of
Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or
Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night.
Numerous strong convection is seen within 75 nm of the center.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection in bands is
elsewhere S of 16N W of 76W. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall
amounts of 8-16 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua,
Guatemala, and southern Belize, with isolated maximum totals of
20-30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern
Honduras. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend within about 180 nm N
and 90 nm S semicircles of center with maximum seas of 32 ft near
the center. Please refer to statements issued by your national
meteorological service. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 46W from 16N southward, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern
end of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is along 64W/65W from 15N southward to
across Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. The wave appears to enhance
some convective activity over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 07.5N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07.5N18W to
06N30W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 06N-08N between 26W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, and extends from
SE Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong N-NW
winds and building seas follow the front. A line of cloudiness
with embedded showers is related to the front. It will continue
to move SE through Tue, reaching the central Gulf Mon, then
shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. A ridge will follow the
front. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Iota will
bring a notable increase in winds and seas across the SE half of
the basin, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan
Channel Tue through Thu. NE winds of 25-30 kt, with higher gusts
are forecast across the Strait of Florida Tue night through Wed
night, with seas building to 10-15 ft.

A couple of surface troughs are analyzed ahead of the front. One
extends from 24N92W to the central Bay of Campeche, and the
other extends from 27N86W to 22N87W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the trough axes. Light to gentle winds are observed
across most of the Gulf based on scatterometer data, with the
exception of moderate easterly winds E of the latter trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

All the attention remains focused on Hurricane Iota. Very favorable
atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to lead to rapid
strengthening until Iota's center crosses the coast of Central
America. The official intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach
major hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central
America Monday night. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-
threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast
of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Through Friday
morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. An
outer band of Hurricane Iota is now approaching Cabo Gracias a
Dios in Nicaragua. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for details on very dangerous Hurricane Iota.

Fresh to strong winds associated with the circulation of Iota
cover the waters from just S of Jamaica to Panama. Fresh to
strong NE flow is also noted across the Windward passage, and
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh trades are
seen over the eastern Caribbean while mainly light winds dominate
the Gulf of Honduras. As Iota continues to move westward, most
of the western Caribbean will see an increase in winds and seas,
including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. On Tue,
fresh to strong winds will cover most of the waters N of 16N W of
80W due to the pressure gradient between Iota and strong high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Persisting northerly winds will
maintain very rough conditions across the Gulf of Honduras.

Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the
SW Caribbean through at least tonight. A cold front will move
into the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to
the northern Gulf of Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N56W to near Cape
Canaveral in Florida. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded
showers is associated with the front forecast to gradually dissipate
tonight through Mon. A new cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas
early Tue, then from 31N65W to the central Bahamas early Wed, and
from 26N65W to the SE Bahamas early Thu. Fresh to strong winds
will develop behind the front Tue night through Thu night as the
pressure gradient tightens.

Farther east, a mid to upper-level low is spinning near 19N58W.
A trough, surface reflection of the low, extends from 26N52W to
18N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated
with these features.

A high pressure of 1021 mb located SW of the Azores near 32N32W
dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. The remnant low
of Theta is SW of the Madeira Islands near 32N18W. A well defined
swirl of low clouds is still noted in association with the remnant
low of Theta.

$$
GR
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