[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.1N 78.9W at 15/1800 UTC or 150
nm E of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Rapid strengthening is currently
occurring and is expected to continue during the next 24-36
hours. Iota is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane when it
approaches northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late
Monday. Numerous strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the
center in the E semicircle and within 120 nm W semicircle.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is elsewhere
from Panama to 17N between 71W-83W. Seas of 12 ft or greater
extend out 150 nm N of the center and up to 75 nm S of the
center, with maximum seas of 24 ft near the center. Seas are
forecast to build to over 30 ft after Iota becomes a major
hurricane. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will
likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America. The worst flooding
and mudslides are expected over Honduras, northern Nicaragua,
Guatemala and southern Belize, where flooding could be
exacerbated by the effects of recent Hurricane Eta, causing
potentially catastrophic impacts. Please refer to statements
issued by your national meteorological service. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Theta has weakened to a remnant low near
31.5N 18.2W as of 15/1500 UTC, or about 585 nm SE of the Azores
moving N at 2 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb, and
maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt. The final advisory has
been issued and can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml for the Public
Advisory and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
the Forecast/Advisory.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 45W from 15N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the
wave axis from 08N-15N.

A tropical wave axis is along 64W from 15N southward to across
Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No associated convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 07.5N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07.5N18W to
03N43W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N-09N between 25W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crossed the Texas coast and moved into the NW Gulf
of Mexico at 15/1500 UTC, extending from Lake Chares to Galveston
to Corpus Christi to northern Mexico near 26N100W. Scattered
showers are within 15 nm of the front. Two surface troughs over
the basin are producing scattered moderate showers near them. One
extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 19N92W, and the
other extends from 27N86W to 22N87W. Gentle wind speeds are
occurring over most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for moderate E
winds over the SE Gulf and in the Florida Straits and Yucatan
Channel.

The cold front near the Texas coast will reach the central Gulf
Mon, shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected behind the front across the SE half of the
basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night. Hazardous
conditions are possible near and through the Straits of Florida
during that time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Iota is spreading convection across the Caribbean from
09N-17N between 71W-83W and strong winds from 10N-17N between
75W-81W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details on Hurricane Iota and the associated very heavy rainfall
threat for Central America.

Outside of Iota, moderate to fresh winds are over the basin,
except for gentle in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W. Fresh to
strong NE flow is also blowing across the approach to the
Windward Passage. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean,
and 3-6 ft E of 70W.

Hurricane Iota will strengthen to a major hurricane tonight,
reaching near 14N81W early Mon, then moving inland near NE
Nicaragua late Mon. Iota should then weaken to a tropical
depression well inland over southern Honduras late Tue or
early Wed. Rough conditions are expected over the Gulf of
Honduras through mid-week as Iota moves westward over
Central America. Very active weather will persist offshore
Colombia and the SW Caribbean through at least tonight. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by mid-week,
stalling from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front, with hazardous
conditions possible near the Yucatan Channel.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N56W to 29N67W and continues as a
stationary front to 28N76W. Isolated showers are possible near
the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds within
90 nm N of the front, east of 77W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds extend south of the front to 25.5N. Fresh NE winds are
south of 25N between 63W-78W, including the SE Bahamas, Windward
Passage and Mona Passage.

Farther east, a mid to upper-level low is near 20N57W. This low
now has a surface reflection in the form of a surface trough,
which extends from 26.5N52.5W to 17.5N57W. Scattered moderate
showers and isolated tstorms are from 17N-25N between 48W-59W.
A 1023 mb high is near 35N32W. A 1010 mb low, the remnants of
Theta, is near 31.5N18W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will gradually
stall, and the stationary front will gradually dissipate today.
A new cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, reaching
from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Tue, then from
29N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wed, and from 26N65W to the Turks
and Caicos early Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind
the front Tue night through Thu night as the pressure gradient
tightens.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net