[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

IOTA is almost a hurricane. Hurricane warnings have been
announced for parts of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or
two. IOTA is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it approaches Central America late on Monday.
The center of Tropical Storm IOTA, at 15/0300 UTC, is near 12.7N
77.0W, in the Caribbean Sea. This position is also about 400 nm
to the E of the central coast of Nicaragua. ETA is moving toward
the W, or 270 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60
knots with gusts to 75 knots. It is likely that the heavy
rainfall from IOTA, through Thursday, will lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in parts of
northern Colombia and Central America. The flooding and
mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua may be exacerbated by the
recent effects of Hurricane Eta in those areas, resulting in
significant impacts. The peak sea heights currently are close to
13 feet. The sea heights are forecast to build significantly, as
IOTA strengthens. Please, refer to statements that are being
issued by your local meteorological agency for more details.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 15/0300 UTC, is near
31.7N 18.7W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the
E, or 90 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 90 nm to 180 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant.  Please, read the latest NHC
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 15N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong in individual clusters
is from 07N to 13N between 37W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving around the area of the
tropical wave, with the 21N57W-to-14N60W upper level trough. Any
precipitation is inland in Venezuela from 10N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W, to 05N21W
to 02N32W, 03N41W 08N53W, to 08N57W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward
between 14W and 37W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 09N to 12N between 53W and 61W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward between 50W
and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle/the Florida
Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. An
east-to-west oriented upper level ridge passes through the
central Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, NE of the area in the Carolinas, will shift E as
a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, reaching the central Gulf
of Mexico on Monday, and shifting SE of the basin by Tuesday
night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front,
across the SE half of the basin, and the Straits of Florida from
Tuesday through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm IOTA is in the Caribbean Sea, about 400 nm to the
E of the central coast of Nicaragua. Please, read the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, for more information.

Tropical Storm Iota near 12.7N 77.0W 990 mb at 10 PM EST moving
W at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Iota will
strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 77.9W Sun morning, move to
13.3N 79.5W Sun evening, 13.7N 81.2W Mon morning, 14.0N 82.7W
Mon evening, inland to 14.1N 84.0W Tue morning, and move inland
and weaken to a tropical storm near 14.0N 85.2W Tue evening.
Iota will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland
over 13.6N 87.8W late Wed, dissipating late Thu. Very
active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A cold front will move into
the NW Caribbean Sea by mid-week, stalling from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of
Honduras on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm THETA is in the NE part of the Atlantic Ocean,
near 31.7N 18.7W, about 480 nm to the west of the coast of
Morocco. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more
information.

A cold front passes through 32N62W to 28N72W. The front is
stationary from 28N72W, to the NW Bahamas, to 27N79W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm to 120 nm on
either side of the frontal boundary.

An upper level trough extends from 32N47W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 21N57W, to 14N60W just
to the east of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
is within 360 nm on either side of the trough. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm to
the east of the trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
between Tropical Storm THETA and the cold front/stationary
front. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W.

A cold front, from near Bermuda to 28N72W, becomes stationary
and continues to near Jupiter, Florida. The front will stall
tonight, and dissipate gradually, through Sunday. A new cold
front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Monday. The new cold
front will reach from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early
Tuesday; then from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wednesday; and
from 26N65W to the Turks and Caicos early on Thursday. Fresh to
strong winds will develop behind the front, from Tuesday night
through Thursday night, as the pressure gradient tightens.

$$
mt
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