[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.3N 80.2W at 16/0300 UTC, or
about 70 nm E of Isla de Providencia, Colombia and about 200 nm
ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border,
moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Iota
is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane soon. Peak
seas are currently 36 ft with 12 ft seas within 240 nm in the NE
quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, 90 nm in the SW quadrant,
and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 77W to 83W. A
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through
landfall.  After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night. Rapid strengthening
is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be
an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches
Central America. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from
Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and
mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by
Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to
potentially catastrophic impacts.  Iota is forecast to produce
rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua,
Guatemala, and southern Belize, with isolated maximum totals of
20-30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern
Honduras. Please refer to statements issued by your national
meteorological service. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 20W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this system at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 51W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 07N to
14N between 47W to 51W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 65W from 16N
southward to Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is
enhancing some convective activity over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 22W to 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 16/0300 UTC, the cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N93W to the coast of northern Mexico
near 28N98W. No significant convection is noted with this
boundary. Fresh NNE winds follow behind the cold front with seas
up to 4 ft. A trough is noted in the southern Gulf from 26N86W
to 22N88W with showers within 40 nm of the trough.  Gentle to
moderate ENE winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche with light
winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2-3 ft across the rest of
the basin.

The cold front will continue to move SE through Tue, reaching
the central Gulf Mon, then shifting SE of the basin by Tue
night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front
across the SE half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue
through Thu night, gradually diminishing Fri and Fri night.
Hazardous seas are expected in the S-central and SE Gulf Tue
through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota spreads through
the Yucatan Channel which will combine with NE wind waves.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for all information on
Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm.

Outside of Iota, fair weather prevails across the eastern and NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern
Caribbean with gentle to moderate ENE winds in the NW basin.
Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota.

Hurricane Iota will move to 13.5N 81.4W Mon morning, 13.9N 82.9W
Mon evening, inland to 14.2N 84.3W Tue morning, weaken to a
tropical storm near 14.3N 85.8W Tue evening, move to 14.1N 87.4W
Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 13.8N
88.8W Wed evening. Iota will dissipate late Thu. Very active
weather will persist across northern Colombia and the SW
Caribbean through at least tonight. A cold front will move into
the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the
northern Gulf of Honduras
early Thu. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach
to
the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix
with southerly swell from Iota.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is in the western Atlantic, which is remnant of an old
stationary front, from 30N73W to 29N79W. Showers are noted near
this feature. A cold front extends into the central Atlantic near
31N52W to 29N62W with the tail-end of the front stalling from
29N62W to 29N68W. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are behind the
front. A trough located in the central Atlantic is analyzed from
29N49W to 19N57W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the
trough from 15N to 26N between 48W to 57W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are north and west of this trough. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere with seas 3-6 ft.

A trough, the remnants of an old front, extending from near
31N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will gradually dissipate
through Mon. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast early
Mon, reaching from 31N70W to the near Fort Pierce, Florida early
Tue, then from 29N65W to the central Bahamas early Wed, and from
25N65W to the Turks and Caicos early Thu where it will stall Thu
night, then will weaken and retreat NW Fri and Fri night. Fresh
to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through
Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens.

$$
AReinhart
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