[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.0N 84.1W at 11/0900 UTC
or 150 nm SW of Ft. Myers Florida moving N at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted within 150 nm E and 90 nm W semicircles of
Eta. Eta is forecast to continue on a NNE track. The current
forecast is for Eta to reach hurricane intensity today, then
weaken to a tropical storm tonight. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 34.7W at 11/0900 UTC
or 640 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm NE semicircle of Theta. The
system is forecast to continue on an ENE track the next several
days while slowly weakening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted over much of the eastern Caribbean N of
15N in association to the wave, including portions of Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The wave is expected to move
slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the
central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible
flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed
information, refer to products issued by your local weather
office.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
10N16W to 05N24W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 37W, and from 01N to
10N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Eta. Eta will continue
to impact the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so
before moving inland over Florida on Thursday. Once Eta moves
inland, marine conditions will start to improve.

Outside of T.S. Eta, fresh to strong winds prevail over the
eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf.

Tropical Storm Eta near 25.0N 84.1W 988 mb at 4 AM EST moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Eta will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.4N 83.9W this afternoon, weaken
to a tropical storm near 27.9N 83.4W Thu morning, then will move
inland to 29.2N 82.6W Thu afternoon. A cold front will move into
the NW Gulf today and become stationary over the northern Gulf
through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Eta is over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25.0N 84.1W.
Winds and seas associated with Eta continue to impact the far NW
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Over this area, fresh to
strong winds and seas to 9 ft prevail. Eta will continue to
move farther north over the Gulf of Mexico today, with conditions
over the NW Caribbean improving today. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate winds over the central Caribbean and remainder of the
western Caribbean.

Active convection is covering much of the eastern Caribbean in
association to a tropical wave. This tropical wave has a chance of
contributing to tropical cyclogenesis over the central or eastern
Caribbean later this week or weekend. Please see the latest
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Theta.

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered over the Atlantic waters
near 35N60W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and T.S. Eta is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
SW N Atlc waters west of 60W. Winds have remained strong over
this area for the past several days, helping for seas of 8-12 ft
over the open waters outside the Bahamas. Winds will finally start
to diminish Thursday as the high pressure center shifts slightly
eastward and T.S. Eta begins to weaken. Elsewhere over the
discussion water N of 12N and outside of Theta, gentle to moderate
winds prevail. S of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail.

$$
AL
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