[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 11/0600 UTC, is near 24.4N
84.4W. This position is also about 105 nm/190 km to the W of The
Dry Tortugas; and about 235 nm/435 km to the SSW of Tampa in
Florida. ETA is moving toward the NNE, or 015 degrees, 08 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within
210 nm of the center in the S semicircle, and elsewhere within
360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, mostly in north central
Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic
Ocean, from 21N northward from 70W westward.

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 11/0300 UTC, is near
29.4N 35.5W. THETA is moving toward the ENE, or 55 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 60
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is from 20N to 25N between 32W and 38W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W
eastward. Please,
read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 17N to 21N. An upper level trough is in the
Atlantic Ocean, just to the north of the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N to 20N between 60W and
the 68W/69W tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N20W, to 05N30W, 07N38W, to 05N45W, and
to 06N57W along the coast of Suriname. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong in individual clusters is from 04N to 06N
between 10W and 13W, and from 03N to 07N between 17W and 26W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Atlantic
Ocean from the ITCZ to 20N between 32W and 60W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from the 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 11/0600 UTC, is near 24.4N
84.4W. This position is also about 105 nm/190 km to the W of The
Dry Tortugas; and about 235 nm/435 km to the SSW of Tampa in
Florida. ETA is moving toward the NNE, or 015 degrees, 08 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within
210 nm of the center in the S semicircle, and elsewhere within
360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, mostly in north central
Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic
Ocean, from 21N northward from 70W westward.

Tropical Storm Eta near 23.8N 84.5W 992 mb at 10 PM EST moving
NNE at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will
move to 25.0N 84.3W Wed morning, 26.5N 84.0W Wed evening, 27.7N
83.7W Thu morning, 28.8N 83.1W Thu evening, then move inland to
29.7N 82.5W Fri morning. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and become stationary
in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Fri night. The front will
move northward as a warm front on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 11/0300 UTC, is near 23.8N
84.5. This position is also about 105 nm/190 km to the WSW of
The Dry Tortugas; and about 275 nm/510 km to the SSW of Tampa in
Florida. ETA is moving toward the NNE, or 015 degrees, 08 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. ETA
is expected to strengthen during the overnight hours. Tropical
storm watches have been issued for: the NW Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm of the center in the
S semicircle, and elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant, mostly in north central Florida. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 21N northward
from 70W westward.

A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
17N to 21N.

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, just to the
north of the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea
from 13N to 20N between 60W and the 68W/69W tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Eta is in the SE Gulf of Mexico, near 23.8N
84.5W, moving NNE at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts
65 kt. Winds and seas associated with Eta are impacting the far
NW Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel. Marine
conditions will improve gradually in the NW Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday, as Eta moves more northward in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that a low pressure center may form along the wave.
The potential exists for the development of a tropical cyclone,
late this week or during the upcoming weekend, when the wave
reaches the central Caribbean Sea or the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 11/0300 UTC, is near
29.4N 35.5W. THETA is moving toward the ENE, or 55 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 60
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is from 20N to 25N between 32W and 38W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W
eastward. Please,
read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
from 20N northward between T.S. THETA and the east coast of the
U.S.A. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers
the Caribbean Sea from 13N to 20N between 60W and the 68W/69W
tropical wave.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 45W westward.

A tight surface pressure gradient, between strong western
Atlantic Ocean high pressure and Tropical Storm ETA in the SE
Gulf of Mexico, will support fresh to strong E-SE winds through
Wednesday night. These winds will maintain large seas in the
western Atlantic Ocean, before subsiding gradually,  through
late Thursday night.

$$
mt
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