[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 36.2W at 10/2100 UTC
or 690 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Eta is experiencing SW shear, and
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is displaced to
within 180 nm in the northeast quadrant, and scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm in the southeast quadrant. Eta is expected
to strengthen a little through midday Wed, then gradually weaken
as it moves northward toward the Florida Big Bend area through the
end of the week. Flash flooding and river flooding will be
possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across
previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida
today and tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4. shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 36.2W at 10/2100 UTC
or 690 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The storm has transitioned from a
subtropical to tropical storm in the past several hours. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 29N to 34N between 35W and 40W.
An eastward to east- northeastward motion across the eastern
Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow
weakening is expected by later this week. See the latest NHC
Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 67W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 13N-18N between 62W-65W. The tropical wave is
expected to move westward into more conducive environmental
conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave
reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days. See
the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
13N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to 07N30W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between
40W- 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico
is free of any significant precipitation. Strong to near gale
force winds are evident over the eastern Gulf east of 90W, on the
periphery of Eta. Buoy and platform observations show gentle to
moderate winds prevail west of 90W.

Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf from west to east as
high pressure builds over the southern Plains through late Fri. A
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary
over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as
a warm front Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the
northwest Gulf late Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.S. Eta is north of the western tip of Cuba and the eastern
portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity
through the evening, spreading rain squalls and high seas over
the area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan
Channel on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to
propagate over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on
Wednesday.

Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection is from 13N-18N
between 62W-65W, including near and over portions of Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. An earlier
scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh winds in the eastern
Caribbean, strong winds in the northwest Caribbean, and gentle
winds elsewhere in the basin.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the
central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure
could form along the wave with the potential for tropical
cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect
winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central
Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for information on Tropical
Storm Theta.

A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic
from the northeast Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida.
Upper- level diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered
moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 to 90 nm
east of central and northern Bahamas. Strong SE winds cover most
of the area in a 180 nm swath from the Leeward Islands, to east of
the Bahamas to off northeast Florida, between high pressure to
the north and T.S. Eta to the west. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area.
These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic
before gradually subsiding through late Thu night.

Farther east, seas in excess of 8 ft cover the waters north of 20N
between 30W and 50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas are evident south of 20N west of 40W. Moderate NE to E winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net