[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Eta is centered near 26.2N 83.7W at 11/1500 UTC or 97
nm WSW of Port Charlotte, Florida moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are from 20N to 30N between 78W and 85W. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore
of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central
coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern
portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to
move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or
early Friday. Eta could be near hurricane strength tonight as it
approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening
expected after landfall on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.8N 33.3W at 11/1500 UTC
or 580 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 30N to 35N between 30W and 36W. Theta is
forecast to continue on an ENE track through the weekend while
slowly weakening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 20N
southward to 05N with axis near 71W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and isolated tstms
are from 12N to 20N between 62W and 72W. The wave is expected to
move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend when the disturbance reaches
the western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone deveopment within the next two days. Please read
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W
and continues to 08N15W. The ITCZ begins near 08N15W and continues
along 05N30W to 06N50W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 09N between 10W and 33W, and from 06N to 13N between
39W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Eta near is near 26.2N 83.7W at 10 AM EST moving NNE at
9 kt. Eta will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 83.4W this
evening, and move to 28.9N 82.7W Thu morning, approaching the
Florida coast. Eta will continue onshore over north-central
Florida Thu, then weaken to a tropical depression near 30.5N 81.3W
Thu evening. Eta will weaken further to a remnant low through Fri
as it encounters a frontal boundary over the Atlantic off
Georgia. That cold front will move into the NW Gulf today and
become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night and
dissipate through Sat as high pressure builds over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Please see the special features section for
more details on Hurricane Eta.

Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E winds will dominate the
basin in the wake of Eta. The next front is forecast to enter the
NW gulf on Sun night and extend from central Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Mon afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SSW winds over
western Cuba adjacent waters along with scattered showers and
tstms. Winds and seas in the far NW Caribbean will continue to
improve today as Eta moves farther N over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over
the central Atlantic and a tropical wave moving across Hispaniola
today is supporting moderate to fresh ESE winds across the E
Caribbean Sea. Furthermore, the wave is supporting heavy showers
and isolated tstms over the Caribbean waters between Puerto Rico
and Venezuela. A low pressure could form along the wave within the
next couple of days with the potential for tropical cyclone
development late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches
the western basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.8N 33.3W at 11/1500 UTC.
Theta will move to 30.3N 31.9W this evening, 30.7N 29.7W Thu morning,
31.1N 27.3W Thu evening, 31.5N 25.1W Fri morning, 31.8N 23.2W Fri
evening, and 31.9N 22.0W Sat morning. Theta will change little in
intensity as it moves near 32.2N 20.6W early Sun. For further
details on Theta, see the special features section above.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic and Hurricane Eta over the E Gulf of Mexico will
support fresh to strong E-SE winds over the SW N Atlantic waters
through tonight. These winds will maintain large seas in the
western Atlantic before gradually subsiding through late Thu
night. The remnant low of Eta will emerge off northeast Florida
Fri, and merge with a stalling frontal boundary before dissipating
through Sun.

$$
Ramos
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