[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eta is centered just north of the Gulf of
Honduras near 17.3N 86.5W at 2100 UTC, moving NE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N to 19N
between 82W and 87W. Eta is forecast to continue moving NE and
gradually intensify, and will approach the Cayman Islands Sat and
central Cuba Sat night through Sun as a tropical storm. Eta is
then expected to lift northward across Cuba and into the Straits
of Florida Sun night and then approach The Florida Keys and South
Florida late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall potential will persist
across Central America and the Caribbean coasts, associated with
Eta, and may lead to to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and river flooding and storm surge damage is
also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman
Islands and western through central Cuba.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 02N-17N, moving westward
10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted
from 08.5N to 11N between 48W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W-64W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. A small cluster of moderate
thunderstorms are sen across the east central Caribbean along 63W
behind the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ
continues  from that point to 06N46W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted along the ITCZ between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the waters S of a line from
Central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N96W to
23N96W.

Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near
18.6N  85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning,
21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning,
24.1N 80.0W Sun evening, and 25.0N 81.2W Mon morning. Eta will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.5N 84.0W early
Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida, Sun through Tue, spreading
northward across the eastern Gulf Sun night through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the sections above for more information Tropical
Depression  Eta and the tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean. Outside of Eta, a broad area of strong E to SW winds
prevail east of Eta to 79W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. A broad
band of scattered moderate to strong convection extends from just
west of Jamaica southeastward to coastal Colombia. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the central
and eastern Caribbean.

Winds area expected to freshen in the vicinity of Jamaica and the
Windward Passage Sat in advance of the approaching Eta, with
winds becoming strong by evening there. Look for quickly
deteriorating marine conditions south of Cuba Sat through Sat
night ahead of Eta. The tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean
will move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening
circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture and
weather across the Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating shearline extends from near 27N64W SW through the
central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the shearline. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 30N57W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 300 nm east of the trough. Fresh to
locally strong winds prevail over the waters N of the old
shearline, roughly 21N and W of 65W, while moderate to fresh
winds prevailing elsewhere.

Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm over
the northwest Caribbean and move northward across central Cuba
early Sun, over the Straits of Florida Sun afternoon and evening
and then begin to veer NW towards the east Gulf of Mexico Sun
night through Mon. Tropical storm conditions are possible between
Cuba and the Bahamas Sat night through Mon. Large seas are
expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue and the wind
field of Eta greatly expands producing near tropical storm force
winds across the northern Bahamas and Florida coastal waters
possibly as far north as Palm Beach.

$$
Stripling
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