[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 07 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 07/0300 UTC, is near
18.0N 85.2W. This position is also about 240 nm/445 km to the
WSW of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands.
ETA is moving toward the NE, or 055 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. ETA
is expected to strengthen during the overnight hours. Tropical
storm watches have been issued for: the NW Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 300 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere: in the Caribbean Sea
from 70W westward; and in the Atlantic Ocean: from the waters
that are to the north of Puerto Rico for at least 1100 nm to the
WNW, into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries.
Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to
monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests
in Cuba, and in the southern part of the Florida Peninsula:
please, monitor the progress of T.D. ETA. It is possible that it
may be necessary to issue tropical storm watches on Saturday,
for some of those areas.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.  Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
08N to 12N between 48W and 55W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
in the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from
07N16W, to 05N23W, to 07N27W, to 06N44W, and to 07N50W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong, in small
and concentrated clusters, is from 06N to 13N between 10W and
46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 20N
southward, from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging into the Gulf of Mexico, from
eastern Texas into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between
85W and 94W.

Tropical Depression ETA-related precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from the
Yucatan Channel into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
continuing southeastward, to Cuba, to Hispaniola, and to the
Atlantic Ocean waters that are to the north of Puerto Rico.

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is apparent in the Gulf of
Mexico, due to the location of Tropical Depression ETA in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge passes through
Arkansas, to the middle Texas Gulf coast, to 18N96W in Mexico.

Tropical Depression Eta is on the western Caribbean Sea near
18.0N 85.2W 1002 mb at 10 PM EST moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 19.0N 83.2W Sat morning, move to 20.3N 81.1W
Sat evening, inland to 21.9N 79.9W Sun morning, 24.0N 79.9W Sun
evening, 25.0N 81.3W Mon morning, and 25.2N 82.6W Mon evening.
Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N
84.3W late on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the SE Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida, on
Sunday. The tropical storm conditions will spread northward,
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 07/0300 UTC, is near
18.0N 85.2W. This position is also about 240 nm/445 km to the
WSW of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands. ETA is moving toward
the NE, or 055 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30
knots with gusts to 40 knots. ETA is expected to strengthen
during the overnight hours. Tropical storm watches have been
issued for: the NW Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida
Keys. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 300 nm of the
center in the E quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere: in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward; and
in the Atlantic Ocean: from the waters that are to the north of
Puerto Rico for at least 1100 nm to the WNW, into the SE Gulf of
Mexico. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries.
Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to
monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests
in Cuba, and in the southern part of the Florida Peninsula:
please, monitor the progress of T.D. ETA. It is possible that it
may be necessary to issue tropical storm watches on Saturday,
for some of those areas.

Tropical Depression Eta near 18.0N 85.2W 1002 mb at 10 PM EST
moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 83.2W Sat
morning, move to 20.3N 81.1W Sat evening, inland to 21.9N 79.9W
Sun morning, 24.0N 79.9W Sun evening, 25.0N 81.3W Mon
morning, and 25.2N 82.6W Mon evening. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 84.3W late Tue. The center
of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands on Saturday, and be near
central or western Cuba on Saturday night and on Sunday. The
system will move to the north of the area late on Sunday, with
marine conditions starting to improve into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 59W/60W, from 22N to 29N. A second
surface trough is about 420 nm to the east of the first surface
trough. A third surface trough is about 500 nm to the ESE of the
second surface trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate
and isolated strong is from 18N northward between 40W and 70W.

Tropical Depression Eta near 18.0N 85.2W 1002 mb at 10 PM EST
moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 83.2W
Sat morning, move to 20.3N 81.1W Sat evening, inland to 21.9N
79.9W Sun morning, 24.0N 79.9W Sun evening, 25.0N 81.3W Mon
morning, and 25.2N 82.6W Mon evening. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 84.3W late Tue. Tropical
storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas, from
Saturday night through Monday. Large seas are expected in the
western Atlantic Ocean from Saturday through Tuesday.

$$
mt
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