[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 17.8N 87.0W at 06/1500
UTC, moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt.  Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm NE and 240 nm SW
semicircles. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the
Cayman Islands and western/central Cuba this weekend. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in
areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 02N-17N, moving
westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave's axis mainly south of 05N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ
continues  from that point to 06N46W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted along the ITCZ between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the waters S of a line from
Central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N96W to
23N96W.

Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near
18.6N  85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning,
21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning,
24.1N 80.0W Sun evening, and 25.0N 81.2W Mon morning. Eta will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.5N 84.0W early
Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida, Sun through Tue, spreading
northward across the eastern Gulf Sun night through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the sections above for more information Tropical
Depression  Eta and the tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean. Outside of Eta, moderate to fresh winds prevail
across the central and eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near
18.6N  85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning,
21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning,
24.1N 80.0W Sun evening. Eta will shift north of the area Sun
and Sun night, with conditions improving through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave  moving across the basin.

A shearline extends from near 24N68W NW to western Cuba.
Scattered  moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the
shearline. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N54W to
21N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm
east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over
the waters N of 21N and W of 65W, while moderate to fresh winds
prevailing elsewhere.

Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm over
the northwest Caribbean and move northward towards the east Gulf
of Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba
and the Bahamas Sat night through Mon. Large seas are expected
in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net