[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 08N
between 40W-53W. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W from 18N southward, moving
W at 10 kt. Convection associated to this wave is limited, but
cyclonic curvature is noted on visible satellite.

A tropical wave with axis near 89W has moved into the eastern
north Pacific, and is discussed in the eastern north Pacific
tropical weather discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N32W to
04N45W, it then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N48W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned
in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 23W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper- level trough axis extends from the north- central Gulf
of Mexico to the western Caribbean. This feature is helping to
enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Gulf.
With this activity, a low level trough has developed over the SE
Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NE Gulf of Mexico,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range over the SW Gulf, and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

The low pressure trough over the eastern Gulf will produce fresh
to strong winds and building seas E of 90W tonight into Mon as it
slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold
front will move into the NW Gulf and weaken during the middle of
the week. Smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce
visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft
range over the central Caribbean, and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south- central
Caribbean through Mon night, then remain fresh through Fri night.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the
Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A tropical wave along 72W will
cross the western Caribbean Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over the W
Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas. A surface trough is
over the W Atlantic along 68W. A dissipating stationary front is
over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 23N49W. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the forecast area. Seas are in the
3-6 ft range across the open waters, and 1-3 ft W of the Bahamas.

Over the W Atlantic, the surface trough along 68W will drift
westward and weaken through Mon. Another trough is expected to
develop near the Florida coast on Mon, resulting in fresh winds
and building seas offshore as it lifts northward into Tue. Winds
and seas may increase over the northern waters E of 70W late Wed
through Fri as another low pressure trough develops E of the area.


$$
Formosa/AL
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