[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W from 18N southward, moving W at
15 kt. The wave shows up well in Total Precipitable Water
imagery, with the highest TPW values just west of the 700 mb
trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between
37W-54W. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles
and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed.

A tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 22N southward, moving
westward at 10 kt. An upper-level trough from the north-central
Gulf of Mexico to Costa Rica is also providing upper-level
diffluence over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is N of 17N between 74W-85W. The
wave may weaken during the next 24 hours over S Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N35W to
05N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N47W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned
in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

15 kt E to SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-
level trough axis extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to
the Yucatan Channel to Costa Rica. Isolated moderate convection
and scattered showers are E of 87W over the Gulf of Mexico to
include over Florida.

A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf later
today. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W
tonight into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the
NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by
mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico could
reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is
over the W Caribbean along 86W/87W. See above. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over N Colombia and E Panama. An upper-level
trough is also over the W Atlantic. See above. Upper-level
ridging and dry air is over the E Caribbean Sea with mostly fair
weather.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean through Mon night, then remain fresh through Thu night.
A tropical wave near 46W will move into the waters E of the
Windward Islands late Mon or Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over the W
Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas, mostly due to upper
level diffluence. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from
31N66W to 24N68W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
31N41W to 25N49W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, a surface trough along 67W-68W will
gradually drift westward through Mon. Another trough is expected
to develop near the Florida coast on Mon, resulting in fresh winds
and building seas offshore into Tue. Winds and seas may increase
E of 70W late Wed through Thu night as another low pressure trough
develops E of the area.

$$
Formosa
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