[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 49W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N-08.5N between 240 nm W and 120 nm E
of the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
from 03N-10N within 360 nm E of the wave axis. The wave should
enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean
Tue into Wed.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 20N southward,
moving at 15 kt. No convection is noted, but low-clouds are seen
near the wave axis on nighttime visible imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 03N38W to 04N47W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03N-07N between 26W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the SE Gulf from Cancun to the
Dry Tortugas. An upper-level trough axis extends from the Texas
coast to Cuba. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous
moderate scattered strong convection in the Florida Straits,
east of 81.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen
elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 85.5W and in
the Yucatan Channel. Most of the Gulf between 86W-93W is free
of significant shower activity. A low pressure over the Texas
Panhandle combined with favorable upper-level dynamics is
leading to areas of strong to severe tstorms over southern
and central Texas. Scattered showers and tstorms are already
spreading over the western Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of
western Louisiana, Texas and northeastern Mexico. Expect
some strong tstorms over these waters this morning between
0600-1200 UTC, especially off the middle and lower Texas
coast. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across most of the Gulf. However, strong winds are
seen over portions of the SE Gulf and Florida Straits.

The sfc trough over the southeastern Gulf will produce fresh
to strong winds and building seas E of 90W today as it slowly
lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front
will move into the NW Gulf and weaken during the middle of the
week. Haze and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could
reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough from Cancun to the Dry Tortugas is producing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms in the Yucatan Channel.
An upper-level trough extending from Texas to Cuba is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection over portions of
west-central Cuba and the waters north of 20N between 79.5W-82W.
This is adding to heavy rain that has already fallen over parts
of Cuba. A tropical wave extending from Guatemala southward to
the east Pacific is responsible for scattered moderate
convection over Honduras and waters within 30 nm of the coast of
northeastern Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are occurring over Hispaniola due to the influence of a surface
trough extending from 25N64W to 19N68W and due to the tropical
wave along 75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate winds are over
the SW Caribbean and far NE basin.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean through tonight, then remain fresh through Fri night.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the
Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A tropical wave along 75W
will cross the western Caribbean today through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level
trough over Cuba are enhancing numerous moderate scattered
strong convection over the Florida Straits, Florida Keys,
extreme southern Florida and the Atlantic waters south of 27N
and west of 79W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong E to SE
winds over much of this area, as well as the NW Bahamas.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and tstorms to continue
there for much of the day and push northward as the day
progresses. A couple of weak surface troughs located in the
area from 20N-30N between 64W-70W are producing isolated to
scattered showers in the area. A 1024 mb high is near 33N54W.
A 1022 mb high is near 26N40W. In between the two highs, a
surface trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 24N49W. Isolated
showers are along the trough axis.

A surface trough along 68W will drift westward and weaken
through today. The trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico may
extend its axis over Florida and into the western Atlantic
today, resulting in fresh winds and building seas offshore
as it lifts northward into Tue. Winds and seas may increase
over the northern waters E of 70W late Wed through Fri as
another low pressure trough develops E of the area.

$$
Hagen
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