[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots, from SE Cuba southward. The wave is
moving toward the area of an upper level trough, with its clouds
and precipitation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W to 06N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N13W to 07N16W 05N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N22W to 03N32W, to 02N38W, to the Equator along 41W, and
along the Equator to 45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between the coast of Africa and 14W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
25W and 29W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the upper Texas Gulf coast,
across the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, toward Costa
Rica. Precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures,
multilayered convective debris clouds, and lingering isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the
eastern half of Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, and parts of
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

S and SE surface wind flow spans the area. A surface ridge
passes through 28N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A NE Gulf of Mexico ridge will support moderate to fresh E or SE
winds across the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the upper Texas coast in the
Gulf of Mexico, across the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Costa Rica. Precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures,
multilayered convective debris clouds, and lingering isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the
eastern half of Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, and parts of
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong
is in the western half of Nicaragua. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the NW corner of
Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
waters that are from 16N southward from 79W westward.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere between the line that runs from
Guadeloupe-to-17N70W-to-17N73W-to-13N70W and 80W.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Monday. A tropical wave
along 77W will continue to move westward across the Caribbean
Sea through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough is just to the west
of the current stationary front, which passes through 32N43W, to
30N45W, to 28N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90
nm on either side of the line that runs from 22N51W to 26N47W,
beyond 32N42W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 20N to 24N between 59W and 62W, close to
the upper level trough.

Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 20N to 24N between 59W and 62W, in the
area of a 500 mb-to-700 mb level trough and upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

Large NE swell will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas tonight,
and then subside on Saturday. Modest high pressure will build
across the northern waters through Saturday.

$$
mt
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