[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 78W/79W from 20N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots, from SE Cuba southward. The wave is
moving toward the area of an upper level trough, with its clouds
and precipitation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 03N32W, to 02N38W, to the Equator along
41W, and along the Equator to 45W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate isolated strong is within 200 nm south of the monsoon
trough between the coast of Africa and 14W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W
and 30W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the upper Texas Gulf coast,
across the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, toward Costa
Rica. Precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures, multi-
layered convective debris clouds, and lingering isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize,
into the NW part of the Caribbean Sea.

S and SE surface wind flow spans the area. A surface ridge
passes through 28N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A NE Gulf of Mexico ridge will support moderate to fresh E or SE
winds across the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the upper Texas coast in the
Gulf of Mexico, across the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Costa Rica. Precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures,
multilayered convective debris clouds, and lingering isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize,
into the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate is in
the western half of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are from 16N
southward and 79W westward.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere between the line that runs from
Guadeloupe to 17N70W to 17N73W to 13N70W, and 80W.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. A tropical
wave along 78W will move across the western Caribbean through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is just to the west of a stationary front
in the central Atlantic Ocean , which passes through 32N43W, to
24N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 22N51W to 26N47W, beyond
32N42W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from
20N to 24N between 59W and 62W, close to the upper level trough.

Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 20N to 24N between 59W and 62W, in the
area of a mid-level trough and upper level anticyclonic wind
flow.

Large swell northeast of the Bahamas will subside later today.
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the area
through Wednesday.

$$
mt/dbm
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