[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 67W from 20N southward, moving westward
at 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared
satellite imagery. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N in
the Caribbean to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
04N25W to 04N34W, to the Equator along 43W, to 01N47W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through SW Georgia, across the Florida
Panhandle near the Gulf of Mexico, beyond SW Louisiana into SE
Texas. Warm cloud top temperatures, dissipating precipitation,
and remnant multi-layered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from
26N northward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf of Mexico,
to the northern Yucatan peninsula. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east and
southeast of the upper level trough.

A ridge across much of the Gulf of Mexico waters will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Monday. The stationary
front along the U.S. gulf coast will lift northward today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

An upper level trough extends from the NW part of the Caribbean
Sea to Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 14N to 16N between 81W and 83W. Broken to overcast multi-
layered clouds, cover the area from 16N southward and 77W
westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the area from
80W eastward, is pushing toward the east other broken to
overcast multi-layered clouds.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south-central Caribbean Sea through Monday. The tropical wave
along 67W will move across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is south of Bermuda near 31N64W.
An occluded front extends from the Bermuda low pressure center
to a triple point that is near 32N56W. A cold front curves from
the low toward the southwest to 28N68W, to 30N75W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
NE of the NW Bahamas; and from 26N to the cold front between 66W
and 75W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 20N northward
from 60W westward.

An upper level trough is along 26N43W 22N50W 16N56W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N northward between 45W
and 65W.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to a
1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N34W, to 23N54W.

The low pressure center that is south of Bermuda will move SE to
S, into the forecast waters today, and weaken. Large NE swell
from the low will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas through
Friday, then subside Friday night and Saturday. Modest high
pressure will build across the northern waters Friday through
Saturday.

$$
mt/dbm
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