[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 20N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest
infrared satellite imagery. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean
between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
04N25W 03N37W, to the Equator along 42W, to 01N47W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through SW Georgia, across the Florida
Panhandle, into the Gulf of Mexico and to SE Louisiana, and
beyond SW Louisiana into Texas. Warming cloud top temperatures,
dissipating precipitation, and remnant multilayered clouds cover
the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

A ridge will dominate much of the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday
producing, an E to SE wind flow. Fresh to locally strong winds
are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico each night. These winds
will be associated with a trough drifting W off the Yucatan
Peninsula. A stationary front in the far northern waters will
move northward on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea to Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong from
14N to 16N between 81W and 83W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, some from convective debris clouds with dissipating
precipitation, cover the area that is from 16N southward from
77W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the area from
80W eastward, is pushing toward the east other broken to
overcast multilayered clouds.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.11 in
Guadeloupe.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. A tropical wave
along 66W will move across the Caribbean Sea through Friday.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is just to the west of Bermuda. An
occluded front extends from the Bermuda low pressure center to a
triple point that is near 33N61W. A stationary front curves
toward the southwest to 30N68W, to 31N75W, beyond 32N78W, and
eventually to a SE Georgia 1011 mb low pressure center.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
near the NW Bahamas; and from 26N to the stationary front
between 66W and 75W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from
20N northward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC, according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.40 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough is along 26N43W 22N50W 16N56W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N northward between 45W
and 65W.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to a
1024 mb high pressure center that is near 31N24W, to a 1022 mb
high pressure center that is near 27N34W, to 25N55W, to 25N66W,
to the central Bahamas near 23N77W.

The low pressure center that is near Bermuda will move SE to S,
into the forecast waters on Thursday, and weaken. Large NE swell
from the low pressure center will affect the waters that are to
the NE of the Bahamas through Friday. The swell will subside on
Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will build modestly
across the northern waters on Friday and Saturday.

$$
mt
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