[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211721
TWDAT

076
AXNT20 KNHC 211700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward, moving westward
at 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared
satellite imagery. Isolated moderate convection is N of 17N
between 67W-73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-07N between 08W-18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-07N between 25W-32W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-03S between 36W-52W.

Gulf of MEXICO...

A stationary front dips down to the Florida Panhandle from 31N83W
to 30N86W to 31N88W. Isolated showers are along the front. 10-20
kt SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is over S Texas S of 29N.

A ridge across much of the Gulf waters will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds through Mon. Diurnal troughs moving west off
the Yucatan Peninsula each night into early next week could lead
to locally strong winds over portions of the southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. 15-20 kt
trade winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A 1008 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 1N74W. Scattered moderate
convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 07N-10N
between 75W-78W. Further NW, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is E of Nicaragua from 11N-17N between 79W-83W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica,
and W Cuba.     Fresh to occasionally strong trades will persist in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon. A tropical wave along 70W
will move across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N50W.
A cold front extends WSW from the low to 26N70W to 30N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. A
1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N30W
producing fair weather.

Large NE swell will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas through
Fri, then subside Fri night and Sat. Modest high pressure will
build across the W Atlantic waters Fri and Sat.

$$
Formosa
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