[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 63W from 20N southward, moving westward
at 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared
satellite imagery. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is
from 15N to 16N between 55W and 57W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 54W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to
05N25W to 04N40W to 09N53W and to 08N56W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 21W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
between 15W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 01W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes from Jacksonville Florida, across
north central Florida. An upper level trough passes through
32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida to the south of
Lake Okeechobee and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the
central part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N
between 65W and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also
in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water
vapor satellite imagery, is in the Gulf of Mexico, to the
northwest of the upper level trough.

A weak stationary front extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico
will dissipate today. A cold front is expected to stall along
the northern Gulf Coast tonight through Friday. E to SE winds
will prevail across the basin Friday through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, related to the Atlantic
Ocean-to-Yucatan Peninsula trough, covers the far NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, especially from 80W
eastward.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Jamaica,
along 77W, westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong in Central America is from 09N to 15N between 83W and
90W, from Costa Rica to Nicaragua and Guatemala.

Fresh trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean Sea
through Friday. High pressure, building into the region on
Friday night and Saturday, will increase the wind speeds in the
south central Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. A
tropical wave that is along 63W will move across the Caribbean
Sea through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras from tonight through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across Florida to the south of Lake Okeechobee and into
the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the central part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N between 65W
and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also in the
Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W.

A cold front passes through 32N32W, to 28N40W, and to 26N48W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the NNW
of the cold front.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is north of the area near 35N65W.
Arthur will move SE to S through Thursday, and weaken. Large NE
swell from Arthur will affect the waters that are to the NE of
the Bahamas, through Friday, and then subside on Friday night
and Saturday. A weak frontal trough moving across Florida will
dissipate later today. High pressure will build modestly across
the northern waters on Friday and Saturday.

$$
mt/dbm
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