[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 65W from 10N-20N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared
satellite imagery, as well as model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection prevails east of the wave axis approaching the Lesser
Antilles at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N39W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate is noted within 60 nm either side of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1014 mb
high centered near 25N87W. A stationary front extends along 30N
between 86W-89W with scattered showers. To the southeast, a
surface trough extends from 22N88W to 26N81W. Another surface
trough is analyzed over western Bay of Campeche with scattered
showers.

The ridge will dominate much of the Gulf waters through
Sun producing an E to SE wind flow. A surface trough will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours, drift
westward across the SW Gulf at night, and dissipate in the
morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will be associated with
the trough. The stationary front over the far north waters will
lift N on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently moving east across the eastern Caribbean.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, related to the Atlantic to
Yucatan Peninsula trough, covers the far NW corner of the
Caribbean. With this, scattered showers prevail in this area.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of
the area , mainly east of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate trades across the basin, except south of 14N between
66W-73W and near the gulf of Honduras, where moderate to fresh
winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central
Caribbean through Sun. The tropical wave along will continue
moving across the Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends across the west Atlantic enhancing
convection mainly west of 61W. A surface trough extends from
28N75W to 26N80W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N26W.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur north of the area will move SE to S
through Thu and weaken. Large NE swell from Arthur will affect
the waters NE of the Bahamas through Fri then subside Fri night
and Sat. A weak frontal trough moving across Florida will
dissipate later today. High pressure will build modestly across
the northern waters through Sat.

$$

ERA
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