[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 20N southward, moving
westward at 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest
infrared satellite imagery. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 16N between 55W and
57W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 54W
and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to
05N25W 04N40W to 09N53W and to 08N56W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 30 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 44W and 45W, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
between 15W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 01W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through SE Georgia, across north
central Florida. An upper level trough passes through 32N73W in
the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida to the south of Lake
Okeechobee and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the
central part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N
between 65W and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also
in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water
vapor satellite imagery, is in the Gulf of Mexico, to the
northwest of the upper level trough.

A surface trough extends from near Naples, Florida to the
Yucatan Channel. A weak stationary front extends into the NE
Gulf. A cold front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast, from Wednesday night through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, related to the Atlantic
Ocean-to-Yucatan Peninsula trough, covers the far NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, especially from 80W
eastward.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Jamaica,
along 77W, westward. Earlier strong convective precipitation, in
Central America from Costa Rica to Nicaragua, has weakened with
time, to be widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
Central America from 09N to 15N between 83W and 90W, from Costa
Rica to Nicaragua and Guatemala.

Fresh trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean Sea
through Friday. High pressure, building into the region on
Friday night and Saturday, will increase the wind speeds in the
south central Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. A
tropical wave that is along 61W/62W will move across the
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Honduras from Wednesday night through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across Florida to the south of Lake Okeechobee and into
the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the central part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N between 65W
and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also in the
Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W.

A cold front passes through 32N32W, to 28N40W, and to 26N48W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the NNW
of the cold front.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is to the north of the area right
now. Arthur will move SE to S through Thursday, while weakening.
Large NE swell from Arthur will affect the waters that are to
the NE of the Bahamas, from Wednesday through Friday, and then
subside on Friday night and Saturday. A weak frontal trough will
move across Florida overnight and dissipate on Wednesday. High
pressure will build modestly across the northern waters on
Friday and Saturday.

$$
mt
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