[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is centered near 36.8N 68.6W at
19/1500 UTC or 260 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving
E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Numerous moderate convection is from 36N to 41N between 60W and
78W. Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow
down over the next day or so. Some gradual weakening is forecast
to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday. See Arthur's
final NHC Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml and Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 04N to 17N near 58W, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered showers associated with the tropical wave are
mostly from 06N-12N between 55W-60W.  Showers from this wave
will likely spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late
tonight and Wed. No tropical cyclone development is expected
from this system through at least the next several days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N19W.
The ITCZ extends from there to 04N44W.  Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 03N-06N between 15W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Big Bend area
of Florida near 30N83W to 27N87W.  No showers or thunderstorms
are associated with this front.  The only showers occurring
currently are located in the SE Gulf from 24N-27N between 84W
and the SW Florida coast. Winds and seas are quiescent across
the Gulf away from the showers.

Active weather is expected to continue across the Florida
Straits through this evening. A second cold front is forecast to
stall along the northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri.
Elsewhere, smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce
visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a ridge north of the
islands and the Colombian low is producing general fresh to
strong trades across the Caribbean.  This morning's
scatterometer pass showed a maxima of strong breeze E trades
just north of Columbia.  Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occuring in the NW Caribbean north of 19N and west
of 80W as well as in the SW Caribbean south of 11N.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean
through tonight then diminish as low pressure prevails along the
eastern seaboard of the U.S. High pressure will build into the
region late Fri and Sat to bring a return to fresh to strong
trades. A tropical wave entering the Tropical Atlantic waters
today will move across the E Caribbean Wed through Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night
through Fri. Agricultural fires in Central America may reduce
visibility at times across the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See sections above for information on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Arthur and on the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

A 1025 mb Azores-Bermuda High is centered near 28N30W with
ridging extending westward to 28N72W.  A weak cold front enters
our waters near 32N35W and extends west-southwestward to 27N52W.
Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front.  In the
wake of Arthur, scattered moderate convection is occurring in
the Florida Straits, NW Bahamas, and north of the Bahamas, as
abundant moisture is being pulled northward.  Winds and seas,
away from the thunderstorms, are generally tranquil.

Northerly swell from Arthur is expected to move into the waters
N of the Bahamas Wed and subside by Fri morning. Otherwise, a
weak cold front will move across Florida into the far western
waters tonight and dissipate by Wed morning.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net