[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave entered the far eastern Caribbean. Its axis is
roughly along 62W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 15-
20 kt. The wave marks the leading edge of a large of moisture as
noted in the GOES-16 imagery and as indicated by the latest TPW
animation. This moisture consists of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 08N to 14N between 51W-59W. This
activity. some possibly with strong gusty winds, is forecast to
spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late tonight and Wed.
No tropical cyclone development is expected from this system
through at least the next several days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through Guinea near 10N14W and
continues to 06N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N30W to 04N40W and to
04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 24W-34W and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between
37W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21 UTC, a rather weak cold front extends from northeastern
Florida to Cross City, Florida and to the eastern Gulf near
27N87W. A weak 1013 mb high center is near 26N89W. The front is
devoid of precipitation. A surface trough extends from Stuart,
Florida southwestward to near Fort Myers and continues southwestward
to 23N86W and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This trough is
being sustained by a broad upper trough that extends from an upper-
level low that is located over the Central Mississippi Valley
southward to southern part of the eastern Gulf. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly extending in northeast to southwest
oriented lines, are moving eastward across the southeastern Gulf
waters along and east of the trough. This activity extends eastward
to across most of South Florida. The trough will slowly move
southeastward through Wed. Behind the surface trough, moderate to
strong subsidence and resultant dry air is suppressing shower and
thunderstorm activity from developing over the rest of the Gulf.

The scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
along and ahead of the surface and upper-level trough through
Wed. The weak cold front will continue to weaken through Wed as
it slowly moves eastward. Another cold front is forecast to
stall along the northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri.
Elsewhere, smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce
visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche during the next
several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for information on a tropical wave that has
entered the Caribbean.

Ample deep moisture along with scattered showers and thunderstorms
are confined to the northwest part of the sea, where upper-level
diffluence is present ahead of the Gulf of Mexico trough. Similar
activity is south of 15N and west of 75W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere over the central and western sections
of the sea.

A moderate pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands
and the Colombian low is producing general fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, where wave heights are peaking
to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere over the
basin.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central
Caribbean through tonight then diminish as broad low pressure
dominates the eastern seaboard of the U.S. High pressure will build
into the region late Fri through Sat, with the resulting gradient
bring a return to fresh to strong trades. The tropical wave over
the far eastern Caribbean will move across the rest of the eastern
Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri. Agricultural fires in
Central America may reduce visibility at times across the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 27N42W, with ridging
extending westward to near 26N70W. A weak cold front enters the
discussion area at 32N34W and continues west-southwestward to near
27N51W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the front. A
weak trough extends from just offshore Stuart, Florida southwestward
from there to across southwestern Florida and into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, under a
favorable upper-level diffluent pattern, are over most of the
Bahamas, the Straits of Florida and waters north of the Bahamas to
near 30N. Moisture associated with this activity is being advected
north-northeastward in strong upper-level winds that are occurring
east of a broad upper trough that is over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Winds and seas, away from the thunderstorms, are generally
tranquil.

As for the forecast, large northwest from former tropical cyclone
Arthur is expected to move into the waters north through northeast
of the Bahamas Wed through Fri then subside late Fri through Sat.
Otherwise, a weak frontal trough will move across Florida into the
far western waters tonight and dissipate on Wed. High pressure will
build modestly across the northern waters Fri through Sat night.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net