[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is centered near 37.0N 70.6W at 19/0900 UTC
or 260 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving ENE at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate convection is from 36N to 39N between 64W and 70W.

A turn toward the east is expected this morning. Arthur is then
forecast to slow down and turn toward the south in another day or
so. Arthur is forecast to become post-tropical later today. Slight
strengthening is possible this morning, but a general weakening
trend is expected to begin by Wednesday. Arthur is expected to
dissipate by the end of the week. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 06N to 18N with along 56W, moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered showers associated with the tropical wave
are mostly south of 10N between 53-56W. Moisture from this wave
will likely spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late
tonight and Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 11N15W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N20W to 02N34W to 03N51W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 03N to 07N
between 20W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from Tampa Bay SW to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front
affecting the SE basin, portions of South Florida and the Florida
Straits. The front will move eastward across the remainder Gulf
through this evening. A second cold front is forecast to stall
along the northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri. Otherwise,
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at
times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep moisture, evidenced by water vapor imagery combined with
upper level diffluence continue to support scattered moderate
isolated strong convection in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection
is in the SW Caribbean over adjacent waters between Panama and
Colombia. Drier air is across the eastern and central Caribbean,
supporting fair weather. However, a tropical wave will enter the E
Caribbean today and the central basin Thu. Abundant moisture is
associated with this wave, which may lead to isolated to scattered
showers during this period.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean
through tonight then resume again Sat. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri. Otherrwise,
sgricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility at
times across the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See sections above for information on Tropical Storm Arthur and
on the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

Abundant moisture and upper-level divergence are over Florida and
the NW Bahamas, ahead of an upper-level trough located over the
southeastern U.S. and east-central Gulf of Mexico. As a result,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen offshore of
South Florida and over the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a stationary
front extends from 32N39W to 29N46W with no convection associated
with it.

Northerly swell from Arthur is expected to move into the waters N
of the Bahamas Wed and subside by Fri morning. Otherwise, a weak
cold front will move across Florida into the far western waters
today and dissipate tonight.

$$
Ramos
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