[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is centered near 36.4N 72.4W at 19/0300
UTC or 165 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving ENE at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends out 210 nm NW
quad and 270 nm NE quad.

A turn toward the east is expected today. A slower southeast or
south-southeast motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur
will continue to move away from the east coast of the United
States. While some slight strengthening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, Arthur is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics on Tuesday. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N51W to 02.5N55W in
southern Suriname, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers
associated with the tropical wave are mostly south of 14N
between 47W-58W. Moisture from this wave will likely spread
over portions of the Lesser Antilles late tonight and Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 12N15W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N19W to 02N36W to 03N51W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near and
within 240 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front resides over the northeastern Gulf, extending
from 31N86W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate showers are ahead of
the front offshore of the Florida Big Bend region. Fresh W winds
are over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, behind the front.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the southeast
Gulf, mainly south of 26N and east of 87W, including the Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel. This activity is being enhanced by
an upper-level trough extending from the southeastern U.S. to
the east-central Gulf of Mexico.

The weak cold front will move eastward across the Gulf through
this evening. A second cold front is forecast to stall along the
northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in
the Bay of Campeche for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep moisture, evidenced by water vapor imagery combined with
upper level diffluence is leading to scattered moderate
isolated strong convection in the NW Caribbean over portions of
the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras. Similar convection is
seen over land in portions of Central America. Scattered showers
and tstorms are also in the far SW Caribbean near the coast of
Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Drier air is found over
much of the eastern and central Caribbean, where isolated
trade wind showers are possible. A recent ASCAT pass shows
25-30 kt winds near the coast of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia,
south of 14N between 69W-72.5W. Strong trades are elsewhere
south of 16N between 68W-76W. Fresh trades are elsewhere
between 65W-81W.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean
through tonight then resume again Sat. A tropical wave will
move across the SE Caribbean Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri.
Agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility at
times across the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See sections above for information on Tropical Storm Arthur and
on the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

Abundant moisture and upper-level divergence are over Florida and
the NW Bahamas, ahead of an upper-level trough located over the
southeastern U.S. and east-central Gulf of Mexico. As a result,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen offshore of
South Florida and over the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms extend northward to 31N between 76W-80W. Farther
east, a cold front extends from 32N39W to 29N46W with isolated
showers near it. A 1022 mb high is near 27N49W and a 1025 mb high
is near 30N30W.

Northerly swell from Arthur is expected to move into the waters
N of the Bahamas Wed and subside by Fri morning. Otherwise, a
weak cold front will move across Florida into the far western
waters tonight and dissipate by Wed morning.

$$
Hagen
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