[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast
coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida eastward
across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual
development is expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight
while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east
of Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system
is expected to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next
few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along
much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See
products from your local weather office for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to
investigate the disturbance. The chance of formation of a tropical
cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to
04N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-07N between 10W-28W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-08N between 37W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1002 mb low is centered over SE Texas near 30N95W. A surface
trough extends SW from the low to near Corpus Christi Texas. A
squall line is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 25N97W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW
Gulf N of 24N between 92W-99W.

E to SE winds will diminish today as a ridge over the NE Gulf
weakens. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana on Sun and drag a
weak cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Virgin Islands.
Similar showers are noted on satellite imagery over the Leeward
and Windward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the
coasts of Costa Rica and W Panama. 20 kt trade winds are over the
central and eastern Caribbean. 15 kt SE winds are over the western
Caribbean. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W.

High pressure to the north of the region will weaken, and shift
eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue
in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia
through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS of 16/1500 UTC a 1009 mb low is centered NW of Freeport
Bahamas near 27N79W. This low is mentioned in the special feature
section above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the W Atlantic from 25N-30N between 70W-80W. A 1027 mb high
is over the W Atlantic near 33N54W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold
front extends from 31N40W to 27N45W. A stationary front continues
to 29N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts.

$$
Formosa
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