[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 26N79.5W, east of Miami
Florida. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 180
nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are elsewhere
from 23N to 30N between 70W and 80W. Gradual development of the
low pressure center is expected. It is likely that the system
may become a subtropical depression later today. The low is
forecast to pass through the northwestern Bahamas, and move
north-northeastward in Atlantic Ocean waters, east of Florida.
The disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds to the northern Bahamas through this evening.
Hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east
coast and in the Bahamas. Dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are also possible along parts of the southeast U.S.A.
coast, during this weekend and early in the next week. Please
read weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather
office, and the High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this morning, if necessary. The
chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48
hours, is high.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
04N26W, to 05N30W, to 03N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is from 03N to 07N between 12W and 26W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
48W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is over Florida. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 27N87W. A broad surface ridge extends
from central Georgia to the west central Gulf of Mexico. Strong
thunderstorms and heavy rain showers are in central and eastern
Texas. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered
rain showers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward from
86W westward.

E to SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico will diminish
today as the ridge over the NE Gulf weakens. Low pressure may
develop near Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across
the northern Gulf Monday through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel.
The trough of low pressure is related to the 1009 mb low near
Miami Florida. Lingering rain showers are apparent off the coast
of Cuba. Rain showers are possible elsewhere, from 70W eastward,
in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds.

High pressure to the north of the region will weaken, and shift
eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and
Colombia through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N41W, to
29N47W. The front continues as a stationary front from 29N47W to
25N60W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to
the north of the frontal boundary, from 60W eastward.

The current 1009 mb low pressure center, that is east of Miami
Florida, will move slowly NE across the Bahamas today, to near
30N77W on Sunday. The low pressure center is expected to be to
the north of the area on Monday. Gradual development of the low
is expected. It is likely the feature may become a subtropical
depression north of the Bahamas. Strong gusty winds are possible
near the Bahamas as the system develops.

$$
mt/dbm
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