[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 25N80W, off the coast of
South Florida. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 22N to 30N between 70W and 80W. Other broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 22N northward between 65W and 70W.  Gradual
development of the low pressure center still is expected. It is
likely that the system may become a tropical depression or a
subtropical depression, or a storm, on Saturday. The low
pressure center is forecast to pass through the northwestern
Bahamas, and move north-northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean
waters to the east of Florida. The disturbance will continue to
bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds in parts of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday. Hazardous
marine conditions will continue off the Florida east coast and
in the Bahamas, for which gale-force wind warnings have been
issued. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents also are
possible along parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast, during this
weekend and early in the next week. Please read weather
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, and the
High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. The chance of
formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high.

...GALE WARNING...

Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 11 feet, for the next 24 hours or so, from 24N to
30N between 67W and 80W. These conditions are related to the
1009 mb low pressure center that is near 25N80W, along the SE
coast of Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
04N26W, to 06N30W, 04N36W, and 03N43W. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 17W and
21W, and from 120 nm to 225 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
38W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is on top of Florida. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 27N87W. A broad surface
ridge extends from central Georgia into the central Gulf of
Mexico, and to the west central Gulf of Mexico. A surface
frontal boundary is in the central United States, through
southern Missouri and Arkansas, into Oklahoma. A surface trough
is in northern Texas. A surface low pressure center is in SE New
Mexico. Strong rainshowers are in central Texas. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the
Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward from 86W westward.

The current 1009 mb low pressure center that is off the coast of
SE Florida near 25N80W will move slowly, northeastward, over the
Bahamas tonight and on Saturday. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will decrease through Saturday, as a ridge in the NE Gulf of
Mexico weakens. It is possible that a low pressure center may
develop near Louisiana on Sunday, and drag a weak cold front
across the northern Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel.
The low pressure is related to the 1009 mb low pressure center
that is near 25N80W off the coast of SE Florida. Warming cloud
top temperatures, and weakening but possibly lingering
rainshowers are apparent, off the coast of Cuba on the Caribbean
Sea side, between 77W and 82W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, from 70W eastward, in areas of scattered to broken
low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, for the
period ending at 16/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe is: 0.02. 24-hour
rainfall totals, in inches, for the period ending at 15/1200 UTC
are: 1.51 for Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.72 for Montego Bay in
Jamaica, 0.45 in Kingston in Jamaica, and 0.02 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico and in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the region will weaken, and shift
eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and
Colombia through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N41W, to
29N47W. The front becomes stationary, and the front continues
from 29N47W to 25N59W and to 26N66W. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible within 240 nm to the north of the frontal boundary,
from 60W eastward.

The current 1009 mb low pressure center, that is off the coast
of SE Florida, will move slowly NE across the Bahamas tonight
and Saturday, to near 30N77W on Sunday. The low pressure center
is expected to be to the north of the area on Monday. Gradual
development of the 1009 mb low pressure center is expected. It
is likely that the feature may become a tropical depression or a
subtropical depression north of the Bahamas. Frequent gusts to
gale-force are possible near the Bahamas, as the system
develops.

$$
mt
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