[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the trough of
low pressure located over the Straits of Florida has generally
changed little today.  This system continues to produce
a large area of disorganized shower activity and gusty winds
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and
the northwestern Bahamas.  Gradual development of this system is
still expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical
storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas.
Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to
move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical-storm-force across
portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas
through Saturday.  In addition, hazardous marine conditions are
expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale
Warnings are in effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents
are possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this
weekend and early next week.  See products from your local weather
office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. There is a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

...GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected between the
Bahamas and Florida through Sat. From 24N to 31N between 65W and
80W, SE winds of 25 to 35 kts will occur. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N between
14W and 20W and from 02N to 08N between 26W and 42W. Scattered
moderate convection is between 01N and 09N between 20W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection
within 180 nm S of the Louisiana coast. Otherwise, weak high
pressure dominates.

A ridge extending into the NE Gulf will generate fresh to strong
E to SE winds E of 90W tonight and Sat, then winds will decrease
to between light and gentle as the ridge over the Gulf weakens.
Low pressure may develop near Louisiana Sun and drag a weak cold
front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather and weak high pressure dominates the Caribbean this
evening.

High pressure north of the region will weaken and
shift eastward through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean near Venezuela and
Colombia through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Radar and satellite imagery depict scattered moderate convection over
the northwest Bahamas, waters between the Bahamas and Florida,
and between the Bahamas and Bermuda associated with the special
feature described above. A 1027 mb high pressure is centered just
E of Bermuda near 34N63W. A stationary front is located from
31N44W to 25N66W. Convection associated with this dissipating
front has diminished.

$$
KONARIK
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