[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One near 28.4N 78.6W 1008 mb at 5
PM EDT moving NNE at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90
nm of all quadrants of the center, and scattered moderate
convection extends within 300 nm E quadrant. T.D. One will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 29.7N 78.0W Sun morning, move
to 31.4N 77.4W Sun afternoon, 33.0N 76.6W Mon morning, then
continue NE into the N Atlc. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
04N35W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 02N to 06N between 05W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 01N to 08N between 15W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1004 mb low is centered over SE Texas near 30N95W with a surface
trough extending SW along the TX coast to near Corpus Christi. A
squall line is moving SE over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N91W
to 24N98W, containing scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms.

This squall line will likely produce strong winds and heavy rains
over portions of the NW Gulf into tonight, but dissipate by Sun
morning. Otherwise, E to SE winds ahead of the squall line over
the central and eastern Gulf will diminish tonight. Low pressure
may be near Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the
northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered north of the area is leading to generally
dry conditions over most of the Caribbean, aside from a few
showers over the Lesser Antilles. Strong trades over the central
and portions of eastern Caribbean prevail, with earlier
scatterometer data indicated locally strong winds also occurring
in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail
over the rest of the Caribbean. A 1008 mb low is centered over N
Colombia near 10N75W.

The high pressure to the north of the region will weaken and
shift eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and
Colombia through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Depression One has formed north of the Bahamas. Please
refer to the Special Features section above for details. A 1027
mb high is located E of Bermuda near 33N55W. A cold front has now
stalled over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 26N46W to
31N57W. This front will dissipate tonight.

$$
KONARIK
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