[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue May 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 10N13W to 06N15W to 05N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N26W to the Equator along 35W, to 02N42W, to
the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is west of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 03N to 08N
between 13W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward between 40W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 89W. Broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rain showers
are from 25N southward.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through
Fri as an old cold front remains stalled across central Cuba and
the NW Caribbean. Southerly return flow will prevail across the
western part of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the western half of the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively
drier air in subsidence, cover the Caribbean Sea east of a line
from 20N64W to the Gulf of Venezuela. Precipitation: broken to
overcast low level clouds and possible rain showers are from 15N
southward and 65W eastward, from 14N northward and 64W westward.

A weak pressure gradient, associated with a trough that is to
the north of the area, will prevail through Thu. A small area of
fresh to strong trade winds is expected in the south central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N60W about
210 nm of Bermuda, to 27N65W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. A
shear line continues from Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the
northern coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within
400 nm SSE of the cold front. The 24-hour rainfall total, in
inches, for Bermuda, for the period ending at 13/0000 UTC, was
0.26.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to
30N21W, to 30N35W. Precipitation: rain showers are possible from
27N northward between 20W and 40W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will will move
eastward today, then become nearly stationary through Thu. An
area of low pressure is expected to form NE of the Bahamas on
Fri nigh. Expect active weather in the forecast area during the
upcoming weekend.

$$
mt/dbm
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