[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue May 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 08N13W to 06N16W, 06N20W, to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N25W to 08N28W, to the Equator along 35W, to 02N41W, to
the Equator along 48W, to 01N50W. Precipitation: scattered
strong: is along the coast near the border areas of Sierra Leone
and Liberia; within 60 nm to 210 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 14W and 19W; within 45 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 19W and 21W, and within 60 nm to the
south of monsoon trough between 21W and 25W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 40W
and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 89W. Broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A shear line continues from
Andros Island in the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to
22N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, about 90 nm to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 25N
southward.

High pressure will prevail in the forecast waters through the
week, as an old cold front remains stalled across central Cuba
and the NW Caribbean Sea. Southerly return flow
will prevail across the western part of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the western half of the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively
drier air in subsidence, cover the Caribbean Sea to the east of
the line that runs from 20N64W to the Gulf of Venezuela.
Precipitation: broken to overcast low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 15N southward from 65W eastward, and from
14N northward from 64W westward.

A weak pressure gradient, associated with a trough that is to
the north of the area, will prevail through the middle of the
week. This will support a small area of fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N62W about
150 nm to the east of Bermuda, to 27N70W, to Andros Island in
the Bahamas. A shear line continues from Andros Island in the
Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 22N88W in the Gulf
of Mexico, about 90 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 400 nm to the
SSE of the cold front. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches,
for Bermuda, for the period ending at 13/0000 UTC, is 0.26.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N20W, to
31N23W, 30N29W, and to 32N36W. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 27N northward between 20W and 40W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will move SE. The
current cold front will reach from 28N65W to central Cuba on
Wednesday. The cold front will remain nearly stationary through
Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the NE
of the Bahamas on Friday night. Expect active weather in the
forecast area during the upcoming weekend.

$$
mt
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