[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W
to 00N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Widespread moderate
to strong convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from
02N-07N between 13W-29W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of
the ITCZ between 30W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level disturbance is moving across the Gulf. At the surface,
ridging extends across the region from a 1028 mb high centered
off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. There is a stationary front
extending across the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 24N84W.
This is acting as the focal point for scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the Straits of Florida and along
northwestern Cuba. There is a cluster of strong thunderstorms
noted in the Gulf from 22N-25N between 85W-87W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also off the southeast Texas coast N of 27N
between 92W-93W. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are seen throughout
the Gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft with up to 8 ft in the
SE Gulf.

A nearly stationary front extending through the Straits of
Florida will linger into Fri. A high pressure ridge across the
eastern Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W
through Thu night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SE return flow
will prevail across the basin through this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging continues across the Caribbean Sea with
relatively drier air in subsidence covering the region. A mid-
level low is centered to the east of the Lesser Antilles. At the
surface, a trough is in the Windward Passage with no significant
convection associated with it. Scattered moderate convection is in
the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Passage, N of 21N between 80W-
87W. Scattered showers are seen moving westward throughout the
basin. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern and
central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western
Caribbean. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft with 8 ft off the northern
Colombian coast.

A relatively weak pressure gradient will strengthen later this
week as high pressure builds north of the area. Fresh to strong
trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean. Northerly
swell over the Tropical N Atlantic waters S of 15N will subside
into Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends westward across the Atlantic from 31N60W to
27N64W to 24N72W. The front stalls from 24N72W to the NW Bahamas
near 24N78W to 24N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the
Windward Passage near 20N73W to 24N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos from
21N-26N between 73W-82W. An area of showers is moving ahead of the
cold front N of 22N between 49W-67W. In the eastern Atlantic, a
cold front is sinking southward over the Canary Islands,
stretching from 31N13W to 27N22W to 31N36W. Showers are seen
moving along the front. Otherwise, high pressure covers the rest
of the basin. Light to moderate winds are noted throughout the
Atlantic with seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft. Seas are up to 8 ft
near the northern Bahamas.

The entire cold and stationary front will stall over the offshore
waters tonight and remain nearly stationary through Fri.
Strengthening high pressure will build over the western Atlantic
tonight through Fri, resulting in fresh to strong E winds and
building seas over the waters N of 22N. An area of low pressure is
expected to form N of the Bahamas late Fri or early Sat, and
potentially develop into a subtropical depression or storm this
weekend while moving NE over the western Atlantic.

$$
AReinhart
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